GA LAW 5/1 WINNER OF THE 2022 PADDY POWER GOLD CUP
Well the time has come to find the winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and net ourselves further £308k.
Before moving on all I will say is, it has been non stop studying for the race, there is not an angle I haven’t looked at and no stone has been left unturned.
In an ideal world of course it would have been nice to have a couple of picks, like we do on the Scoop 6 but even so, I am confident our selection goes very close.
Generally from a tipping point of view it is a bit different when it comes to the Scoop 6 Bonus. Yes we are looking for the winner whether it be a tip in the race or looking for the Bonus winner but if we were tipping in the race, we would look at value and spot bookies mistakes, value goes out of the window on the Bonus Race, we simply want the winner.
During my race study I narrowed the race down to 4 selections, those being the first 4 in the market. Yes I could have looked at horses at big prices who no doubt offer value but I am sure we would have a few unhappy syndicate members if I went and put up a 20/1 shot when £308k is on offer. Genius if it did come off but the backlash would, I am sure be – ‘what are you doing’.
CONCLUSION
You could make a strong case for all of the above but I have visualised everything about this race and for me, everything points to GA LAW. Let’s get the negative out of the way and that is the fact he has not been around Cheltenham but the same could be said about French Dynamite and even Il Ridoto, who although has been around Cheltenham, he has not run well at the course. The only one with course form from the horses mentioned above, is Stolen Silver. Now it is my job to assess whether I think GA LAW will handle the course and I think given how well he jumps, he is made for these Cheltenham Fences. I am assuming that the plan will be to resort to his usual tactics of being prominent and letting his jumping test those in behind him. If GA LAW adopts these tactics, and I can’t for the life of me see why he wouldn’t, this race really could fall into his lap. Let’s look back to the last 4 years and 2 of the winners (Baron Alco and Coole Cody) won from the front. Last year’s winner Midnight Shadow was also prominent, while Happy Diva was mid division. That tells me it pays to be prominent and apart from GA LAW last run at Aintree, when they were just getting a run into him out the back of the field, he has always been a front runner or prominent. French Dynamite also likes to be up with the pace which is a positive for him while Stolen Silver is a mid division horse while judging from Paul Nicholls comments about ll Ridoto ‘will enjoy a fast pace so he can come from off the pace’, he will be held up and I don’t fancy being a horse who needs luck in running in a messy race like the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Now on to the all important handicap mark, with Stolen Silver being rated the highest at 150. In my opinion I don’t think he is a 150 horse. He was rated 144 at the Cheltenham Festival (primed) and could only come home 4th to Coole Cody at 110% fit. Yes he won his final start impressively but the point being Stolen Silver got found out on marks of 145 and 144, in these types of races last season.
Il Ridoto has come down the handicap to a mark of 140 and I think he could possibly be better than his current mark, given he is only a 5 year old. Trouble is this is a very hot race and he won’t be able to race freely as he did last year and neither will he have it easy coming through a wall of horses. Personally I think he will come on an awful lot and learn an awful lot in this race, that he will be primed for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup in December (you heard it here first).
French Dynamite is rated 148 and once again he could be better than that mark but Mouse Morris thinks he is possibly just short of graded company and possibly a handicapper. If that is the case you are talking about a horse whose ceiling is between 148 – 153.
GA LAW is rated 142 and I have no doubt in my mind he is ‘very well handicapped’. I actually can’t believe the handicapper kept him on 142 after finishing like a train in the Old Roan Chase to come home 3rd. He ran in that race after 603 days off the track and basically what the handicapper is saying is ‘he has no more improvement to come’ . We are happy to keep him at 142. Well thank you very much as I believe GA LAW could be a Grade 2 or Grade 3 horse, rated as high as 155 at best. He will come on tons for his Aintree run and I know some people talk about the ‘bounce factor’ on their 2nd run after a long lay off but I just think that term is used to look fancy and there is no such evidence of it being a thing.
Taking you back to GA LAW novice days as a 4 year old with so much talent and was able to win a Grade 2 Rising Star Novice Chase, by a huge 22 lengths. He jumped his rivals into submission and even back then you just knew he was better than 142. On his next start he came home 3rd in a Grade 1 Henry VIII Novice Stakes, to Allmankind and Hitman. Both those horses are now rated 160 and 159 over fences while GA LAW still remains on 142, mainly due to the fact he has not raced because he was off the track for 603 days. Think about it logically, connections thought this horse was up to Grade 1 company as a novice and he showed it on the track, yet a couple of years later he is floating around on a mark of 142 primed for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, at the tender age of 6. How many pounds does this horse really have in hand as I would go 10 – 15lb.
Now on to the all important ground which looks like it will be good to soft ground. I think this ground makes it a level playing field for all of the above and certainly a ground in which GA LAW will be very happy.
So just to summarise how I see the race being run and the visualization I have in my head. Coole Cody will go off in front and will be tracked by GA LAW, French Dynamite and Editeur Du Gite. GA LAW will keep pinging fences in behind and after the 3rd last fence coming around the bend to the 2nd last fence, GA LAW will jump to the front while Coole Cody gets in tight to the 2nd last fence. GA LAW will have a couple of horses in behind trying to get to him coming to the last fence but GA LAW jumps the last in front and starts his run up the hill, a few others in behind that include French Dynamite and II Ridoto are starting to close but GA LAW low weight and handicap mark are crucial, as he kicks on again when the others behind don’t have the legs up the hill to win by 1 1/2 lengths.
Anyway what will be will be guys but I hope you can see from the detailed write up that every angle has been thought about and I really could not have worked any harder. Those who work the hardest generally get rewarded and I am super confident GA LAW can do the business for us.
I am a great believer in that if you believe something will happen enough, it will happen. Let’s be confident and let’s get this £308k in the bag.
COME ON GA LAW let’s win money ‘Galore’….
CORACH RAMBLER 8/1 WINNER OF THE GRAND NATIONAL
I want to get on now before the prices go on both horses. Before moving on, people will have you fooled by calling this race a lottery. If you told me the same 20 years ago, I would totally agree but each year these fences are getting easier and easier. Don’t get me wrong, it is sure to have some horses unseat or be pulled up, but it is not as hard a race as it used to be. We had 3rd and 4th in the race last year but this year I am all out for the winner and have two selections who have Grand National written all over them.
CORACH RAMBLER is just the perfect Grand National horse, he will stay forever, he jumps well, he travelled better than ever in the Ultima Handicap Chase and I wouldn’t even say he had a hard race at Cheltenham. Lucinda Russell knows what it takes to win this race after winning it with One For Arthur in 2017 and the same applies for Derek Fox.
Obviously we will need a bit of luck in running but these fences are not as hard as they used to be and horses just jump straight through them. Horses tend to unseat on the landing side rather than the fence itself.
I know you can’t be super confident in a Grand National given the nature of the race, but I am as confident as can be under the circumstances. CORACH RAMBLER will have just 10st 5lb on his back as top weight Any Second Now is certain to run and given the form this horse is in, what is going to stop him with 10st 5lb on his back. All he needs in my opinion is a clear round of jumping and CORACH RAMBLER is your 2023 Grand National winner. If he gets over the last fence within a few lengths of the leader, I have no doubt he will get home better than anything.
Come on the Rambler, this race is tailor made for you. E/W.
WEST BALBOA 13/2 WINNER OF A HANDICAP HURDLE AT AINTREE
I have been waiting patiently for WEST BALBOA to run and finally we get our chance to get involved. I am literally all over her and she goes down as my best bet of the Aintree Festival. Obviously that doesn’t guarantee the win but I am confident in what I am seeing and what I have seen to date, to know that she is very well handicapped off a mark of 135.
Dan Skelton skipped Cheltenham in favour of this flat track and she will come into the race fully tuned, as if this was her Gold Cup.
She is a very lightly raced 7 year old with only 4 career starts and only 2 starts this season. She was 2nd on her first start of the season, coming back from 339 days off the track and then went to Kempton and won the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle off a mark of 130, battling on all the way to the line. She has gone up 5lb but the way she stayed on in her last race, on soft ground, over 2m 5f, she looked to be crying out for 3 miles.
She is now up in trip to 3 miles and on better ground you are going to see an even better horse.
Going back to her novice days she was 2nd in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle to Stage Star and that form has obviously worked out well.
I would go as far to say I think she is a good 10lb – 15lb well in on the handicap. We are obviously going to need a bit of luck in running but this is as confident a handicap tip from me all season. I guess we will find out tomorrow but as always I wear my heart on my sleeve and say it how it is. E/W.
MIDNIGHT RIVER WINNER OF A HANDICAP CHASE AT AINTREE
Another horse I have been waiting all season for him to get his conditions is MIDNIGHT RIVER and finally he has got the good to soft ground required to see him at his best. I know the ground went soft today but from 3pm this afternoon, no more rain is forecast. With the weather sunny all day tomorrow, by 4:15pm tomorrow the ground will be back to good to soft with temperatures around 14C. I have also been waiting for him to step up to 3 miles, which he finally is for the first time this season. Dan Skelton has also put a first time tongue tie on which should help that bit more.
MIDNIGHT RIVER is a highly regarded horse who has won 2 from 4 starts this season and also finished 3rd in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November. He was midfield in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival but that was a scrappy race and I have no doubt he is better than what we saw. He has come down the handicap to a mark of 151 and although I wouldn’t exactly say he is well handicapped, I do still think he has a few more pounds improvement in him. This is not the strongest race he has run in this season and although he carries 11st 7lb, I can’t have him out of the frame. E/W.
CORACH RAMBLER 7/1 WINNER OF THE CHELTENHAM 2023 ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
CORACH RAMBLER is just a solid pick to start off our Festival Handicap. This is not to say come the day we won’t have other selections in the Ultima, but this would be my strongest selection in the race.
He was the winner of this race last season off a mark off a mark of 140 and he was doing all his best work at the end of the race. He is now up to a mark of 147 but I think he can defy a 7lb rise in the weights, especially as this race this year, is going to be an even more test of stamina with the ground being soft. The more a test of stamina the better for CORACH RAMBLER.
He has not been seen since the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) back in November, when an excellent 4th of 15 to Le Milos. The ground was good that day so it would have been against him, but he still stayed on from the last fence, in his usual fashion, and it just left me feeling he may have more up his sleeve. He has not been seen since as he is being aimed at the Grand National where he is currently 12/1 2nd fav. If he is 12/1 for that race with 40 runners, the 7/1 here in a weaker race looks decent. Lucinda Russell knows the time of day with her horses and clearly did not want to ruin his handicap mark prior to weights being released in the National. That is a sign that she still thinks he is ahead of the handicapper and given the National is just 1 month away, he will be a very fit horse. Following this race she will want to just keep ticking him over so she won’t have left much training in the horse. Besides CORACH RAMBLER won this race last year and the pot is worth £70k to the winner. Surely it is a case of, win this race first and then on to the National. Derek Fox takes the ride and he knows this horse inside out. He was on him last year when winning the race and in fact is the only jockey to ride him, in 11 races under rules. He is a 9 year old who only 11 races under rules, so very lightly raced.
For me CORACH RAMBLER will be staying on up the hill late in the race and in my mind, I have a placed finish at the very least. E/W.
SIRE DU BERLAIS 50/1 WINNER OF THE CHELTENHAM STAYERS HURDLE
I am also going to have a small stake on SIRE DU BERLAIS at a ridiculous price. He loves the Cheltenham Festival and has won 2 Pertemps Hurdles and finished 2nd in this race in 2021. He may be past his best but it is this time of year that he comes alive. He won the Stayers Hurdle at Aintree last year and you can literally write off anything he does over the winter, as Gordon Elliott trains him to peak in the Spring. I am not saying he is going to win this but I would not be at all surprised if he plugged on for a place here. If he is close enough after the last hurdle, not many will get home better than him. E/W.
LANGER DAN 10/1 WINNER OF THE CORAL CUP
LANGER DAN deserves a win at a Cheltenham Festival and I still think on a mark of 141 he is still nicely treated. He was 2nd in the 2021 Martin Pipe Handicap, bumping into Galopin Des Champs, who was a Grade 1 horse running in a handicap at the time. He was only beaten 3 lengths and pulled a huge 9 lengths clear of 3rd that day. Last year LANGER DAN was then well fancied in the same race but was unlucky when brought down at just the 2nd hurdle. He made amends by winning at Aintree and showed just how good a horse he can be.
I think this race could set up perfectly for him as he is a strong travelling horse who needs a strong pace. He will no doubt get the pace he wants in this race and I can see him travelling sweetly just off the leaders and try and make his move coming to the last hurdle.
We will need a little luck in running but if the gaps open up for him, he will no doubt be thereabouts. E/W.
