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2016 results and winners
Below is a list of our winners in 2016.
I can’t help but think PENHILL is a big price at 3/1. Before I opened up the betting I thought he would be fighting for favouritism around the 6/4 mark so was surprised he was much bigger. He has had 6 starts over hurdles and has 4 wins to his name. He is a Grade 3 winner and was sent off 7/2 for the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle on his last start. He finished 4th that day but still ran a decent race in defeat. I think he will go close here and I am very happy with price. WIN. WON 3/1
Are the bookies for real? DEFI DE SEUIL available at evens. WOW is all I have got to say he should be 4/9. I don’t know who priced this race up but they need there head tested. Have they not seen this horse win twice at Cheltenham this season. He has been fantastic on both starts and is the current favourite for the triumph hurdle. We have not seen the best of DEFI DE SEUIL with further improvement to come and I would be very very very surprised if he was beat here. I am extremely confident. WIN. WON 4/5
The big one and what a mouthwatering clash between Cue Card and THISTLECRACK. I really respect Cue Card and do not have a bad word to say about him but I just think THISTLECRACK is an absolute superstar who has an engine so big no horse can live with him. I don’t see any issues in the jumping department as I believe he will be an even better jumper at a faster pace. This horse won the World Hurdle on the bridle last season and has a very high cruising speed. It is actually frightening that we haven’t seen him out of 2nd gear, can you imagine him in 5th gear on Boxing Day, it will be a pure delight to see. I am really confident THISTLECRACK will win this race and actually win it in the manner of the likes of Kauto Star won. It will be a race where we will just have to clap the horse home and take a bow. Come on the THISTLECRACK. WON 11/10
KILCREA VALE is the highest rated hurdler in the field and I see no reason why he won’t turn out to be the highest rated chaser. He makes his debut over fences tomorrow and I think he will turn out to be useful. He was always going to be a better chaser than hurdler in my opinion as he jumped a hurdle with plenty of daylight and plenty of scope. KILCREA VALE is also a point to point winner so he has already jumped fences in a race before. Westren Warrior is the big danger but I believe our selection has more class and scope over fences, 5/2 is a good price. WIN. WON 15/8
I think ASUM has more to offer than what he showed on his debut over hurdles last time out. I think the better ground will bring out improvement and I know the trainer thinks a lot of this horse. He shaped like a very good horse on his debut in a bumper and is one of my horses to follow this season. 4/1 is certainly too big. WIN. WON 11/4
A two horse race according to the bookies but I make DEATH DUTY evens favourite so I am happy to play at 13/8. I do believe this horse wants 3 miles and although this race is over 2m 4f it is going to ride like a 3 mile race because the ground is described as Heavy. This is a horse I rate highly and a horse I think we will see winning at the Cheltenham Festival in March. I was seriously impressed with his win here 3 weeks ago and he simply has the world at this feet. Invitation Only is the danger but he was a bit sketchy in the jumping department on his debut over hurdles and I am certain DEATH DUTY has the beating of him. WIN. WON 6/4 (2 POINT WIN)
I was really impressed with POLITOLOGUE on his debut over fences at Haydock last time out. He didn’t touch a twig and was foot perfect at his fences. I make him as short as 4/9 so I am happy to take the 4/5 available. I think this horse will turn out to be very smart and could be a Cheltenham Festival winner in the making. WIN. WON at 10/11 (MAX BET)
I think FRODON is massive value at 12/1. He is only a 4 year old but would’ve learned a lot from his run in the Bet Victor Gold Cup where he finished 10th of 17. He actually would’ve finished closer had be not smashed the 4th fence from home. He literally landed right on top of the fence and it knocked the stuffing out of him. Today he has better ground, less runners and will be rode more prominently.
In the BetVictor Gold Cup he actually travelled really well until he hit the fence so you couldn’t rule the horse out completely from winning. He was sent off 6/1 that day yet is double the price for this race at 12/1. This race has only ever attracted one 4 year old runner and that horse was Unioniste who won the race a few years ago. Paul Nicholls trained that horse and he also trains FRODON so I am sure Paul Nicholls can strike again. E/W. WON 14/1
WHOLESTONE is a horse who simply needs 3 miles and now he is back over 3 miles I am all over him. He beat todays 2nd favourite West Approach at the course in October and I see know reason why that form will be returned. WHOLESTONE then finished 2nd here last month but that was over a shorter trip which caught him a bit flat footed. I am very confident this horse will win tomorrow. WIN. WON at 13/8
My Tent Or Yours is the one to beat but I can’t bet him at the price especially on the back of a loss last time out. The horse I find interesting is THE NEW ONE and what I find more interesting is jockey booking of Richard Johnson. THE NEW ONE has been fit for sometime and has had a couple of entries over fences recently. They divert that plan to go for this race which is a race he has won in 2014 and 2015. He is going for his hat trick and although he gives weight to the favourite he will be absolutely primed for this race. WIN. WON at 13/8
LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY is the current favourite for the Triumph Hurdle at 8/1 and Mega Fortune is 16/1 for that race yet the bookies can’t seem to split them in this race. I actually make LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY clear favourite at 4/6 so I am happy to take the 5/4 available. You are talking about a horse who was rated 102 on the flat and is 2 from 2 over hurdles. He also won at the track on his debut. He has literally done everything asked of him and I honestly can’t see him being beat. WIN. WON at EVENS (2 POINT WIN)
I am a big fan of Vroum Vroum Mag but this is her first start of the season so if she is going to get beat it will be first start of the season and I see no better horse to take her on with that APPLES JADE who is surely a very fit horse after already having 2 starts this season. APPLES JADE only ran last week at the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle where she came home 2nd. Had her passage not been interfered with at the last hurdle she would’ve won that race. APPLES JADE is now stepping up in trip and now I think we will see her full potential as she will be able to travel better through her races. It is a tough ask to beat the favourite but getting 5lb off her rival and fitness could be enough to sway it to APPLES JADE. WIN. WON at 4/1
MANY CLOUDS clearly loves it around Aintree having won the Grand National and I think the horse should be favourite around 7/4 so I am happy with 3/1 available. This is his first start of the season so he will come on for the run but I just think his class will be enough to win the race. He finished 2nd in this race to Don Poli last season and we have no horse of his class lining up in the race. You are talking about a proper Grade 1 horse in MANY CLOUDS and he will take some beating in my opinion. WIN. WON at 3/1
UN DES SCEAUX at 2/1 is one of the bets of the season so far for me. He easily beat Sire De Grugy at Ascot last year so we know he has the measure of that horse and I don’t think Ar Mad has the class of UN DES SCEAUX. I actually make the Willie Mullins horse evens favourite so the 2/1 is huge value. He bumped into Sprinter Sacre at his best twice last season but still finished 2nd on both occasions. With no Sprinter in this race I can’t see how the others will beat UN DES SCEAUX and I am very confident he will win the race. WIN. WON at 5/4 (2 POINT WIN)
I think AS DE MEE is perfectly suited to the Aintree National fences as he is a great jumper. He jumped them last season as a novice when finishing 7th of 29 in the Topham Chase and jumped well throughout. A season on and now a 2nd season chaser you would expect him to have improved and got stronger for this test. He has had 2 starts this season and one win to his name when beating subsequent winner Royal Vacation off a higher handicap mark of 139. AS DE MEE is running off a 2lb lower handicap mark today and I think the handicapper is being a bit lenient, 8/1 is a lovely price. E/W. WON at 4/1
I am all over DEATH DUTY who will simply be to good for these at 6/4. This horse is going to be some horse as he gets older and Gordon Elliott thinks this is a special horse. He was impressive on his debut over hurdles and I am surprised this horse is not 4/6 as if he was trained by Willie Mullins I am sure he would be. I can’t have him losing and that is why he is a maximum bet. WON 11/10 (MAX 3 POINT STAKE)
One Track Mind is the worthy favourite here with his form over hurdles but I don’t think he has the most scope in field to make it over fences. I am sticking with CLAN DES OBEAUX at 7/2 who I think can go far over the bigger obstacles. He is included in my 40 to follow and we were on him on his debut at Chepstow 7 weeks ago. I like the fact Paul Nicholls has given him nearly 2 months off before going again as CLAN DES OBEAUX has plenty of time on his side being just a 4 year old. He is a huge horse for his age and will only get better with each run over the season. I like the fact he has been to Newbury and won in what was his best performance of the season over hurdles last season, winning by 21 lengths, barely coming off the bridle. WIN. WON 3/1
I am out to get this favourite Ballyoptic beat here as I think he is there for the taking. I am not convinced he would’ve won his race last time out at Wetherby before his fall and the fall may have also knocked his confidence.
We tipped up UNOWHATIMEANHARRY last weekend in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock but he was made a non runner. They were clearly keeping him for this race and in the conditions he will go close. This IS what I wrote last weekend and nothing has changed apart from a different race and a few comments near the bottom. Everything still remains in his favour and Newbury was a course he was impressive at last season.
I think UNOWHATIMEANHARRY has what it takes to win this race off top weight. Since joining Harry Fry last season he has gone unbeaten in 5 starts and finished off with a win at Cheltenham in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle by 1 1/4 lengths. I know a lot of people in the game think this may have been fluke but I think it was the sign of a genuine horse who loves his stamina being tested. This was his 3rd win of the season at Cheltenham, no fluke in it for me. UNOWHATIMEANHARRY also won on soft and heavy ground last season and smashed a good horse in West Approach giving that horse just under a stone. That horse has come out and run two great races at Cheltenham this season.
One thing our selection is sure to get today is the ultimate test as the ground will be a complete bog. This will only bring out the best in him. I can’t for the life of me see why they make him an 13/2 shot as I think he is a 9/2 chance if not shorter. He has been snapped up by no other than JP McManus over the summer and I am sure he wouldn’t part with cash if information he received wasn’t that of a top class horse. You won’t see many Albert Bartlett winners running in this race but you do have to ask yourself what type of price the likes of Bobs Worth, Martello Tower, Weapons Amnesty, Black Jack Ketchum, At Fishers Cross, Wichita Limeman the list goes on but I am sure they would all be 7/4 shots. I think the bookies are underestimating this horse and they have it massively wrong. WIN. WON 7/2
I am surprised ROYAL VACATION is as big as 10/3 as he has been in decent form this season. He is also trained by Colin Tizzard who horses are flying and he has often praised this horse saying ‘when he goes chasing’. ROYAL VACATION has had 2 starts over fences and finished 2nd on both starts behind As De Mee and Zeroshadesofgrey. He jumped well on the whole and can only improve. For me that is the best form on offer as if those 2 horses lined up in the race they would be close to odds on favourite, which again shows how decent the price of 3/1 really is. WIN. WON 9/4
I am keen on TORNADO IN MILAN here who wins have only ever come on ground described as Soft or Heavy. With all the rain forecast this is sure to be a bog which will only suit the horse. I am actually surprised at the prices between TORNADO MILAN and the favourite Noche De Reyes who is 2/1 and our selection 5/1. TORNADO MILAN finished 2nd to that horse 2 starts back but is now a huge 11lb better at the weights for a 6 length beating. That form can be turned around in my opinion. WIN. WON 11/8
I have been waiting for POLITOLOGUE to go chasing for what seems like forever. This is a tough race but the way I see it is our selection has plenty more scope than his rivals and should make a beautiful chaser. He was bought with chasing in mind and here he is making his debut over the bigger fences. He was the highest rated hurdler out of the field and I have no doubt he will be the highest rated chaser. POLITOLOGUE is only 5 so I can’t wait to see the improvement he has made over the summer. WIN. WON 7/2
I really like the look of SIRABAD here for the Paul Nicholls team who is still in red hot form. The trainer is 5 wins from his last 10 runs and with Sean Bowen aboard I think SIRABAD will take all the beating. I think he is on a very winnable handicap mark of 125. He is yet to win over fences but has run some very good races. He has had 4 starts over fences and although still a novice, he is a 2nd season novice so has more experience than most of his rivals. SIRABAD was rated as high as 131 over fences last season so is down the handicap by 6lb. I would say this is the weakest race he has contested over fences and I am happy to play at 11/2. WIN. WON 11/4
2:05 Market Rasen
This is a weak looking race by OSCAR ROCK standards and although he is having his first start over hurdles for 2 years, I believe he is in a different league to his opposition. The form of his trainer Malcolm Jefferson also helps and his form reads 1141492121 in the last 14 days. Thats 5 winners and 2 2nds. His horses are simply flying. Jockey Brian Hughes is also on fire and his form reads 111122150PU4 in his last 10 starts. This is a perfect combination and for someone of OSCAR ROCK class the 4/1 on offer is very decent. I make him a 9/4 chance. WIN. WON 11/4
I have been waiting for COLINS SISTER since she was pulled out of a race at Cheltenham in October. It was clearly down to the ground being to quick so the ground today will be perfect. I thought she ran a cracking race at Chepstow on her seasonal debut when winning a novice handicap. On her last start last season she finished just 1/2 length behind a decent horse in The Nipper and that is top form. It shows she is progressing into a really nice sort. The form of Fergal O’Brien is also solid at the moment with 6 winners from 22 runners and a further 8 finishing 2nd or 3rd. I think this horse deserves to be favourite and I make her around the 7/4 mark. Its makes the 5/2 available look big. WIN. WON 13/8
12:45 Sky Bet Supreme Novice Hurdle
I’m a massive fan of MOON RACER who is just all class. 2 from 2 at Cheltenham and won the Champion Bumper in 2015. He has had one start over hurdles when beating another of todays runners in Ballyandy. I think MOON RACER will come on a lot for his first start as will Ballyandy but I think MOON RACER is the better horse. Whoever wins will go straight to the top of the Supreme Novice Hurdle market but I am massively confident it will be the David Pipe Trained horse. WIN. WON 9/4
1:20 Arkle Trial Novice Chase
It’s very short and not like me to tip a horse below evens, however, LE PREZIAN is having his 2nd start over fences after losing to Charnel on his 1st start over fences. On the whole I thought he jumped really well and will come on hugely for that run. Over hurdles he got within 2 lengths of the classy Yorkhill on soft ground so the rain which fell early hours of Saturday morning will only enhance his chances. I have the horse shorter in the betting so we have an edge here. WIN. WON 8/11
12:40 Triumph Hurdle Trial
DEFI DE SEUIL is a horse to follow for the season and I think he will turn out to be a very classy horse. This is what I wrote about him in my JPW 40 TO FOLLOW which can still be purchased via the website www.jpwracingtipster.com
A JP McManus french recruit who will be trained by Philip Hobbs. He was an impressive winner in France when trained by Emmanuel Clayeux in April and was then bought in May. He is only a 3 year old and he was already included in this book before he made his debut at Ffos Las on the weekend. I was very happy with what I saw for a horse who is so young. He cruised into the lead between the last 2 and won on the bridle. It was a very eye-catching performance and the horse has the world at his feet.
DEFI DE SEUIL is best priced 9/4 for this race and I think that is an excellent price considering he gets 7lb from the favourite Wealth Des Mottes. I think coming up the hill this will be the difference. WON 5/4
2:35 Down Royal
I am happy to take on Don Poli tomorrow who I think will need the run and I am also happy to take on Silviniaco Conti who I think has his best days behind him. I will take them both on with VALSEUR LIDO (11/4) who is now trained by Henry De Bromhead and Ruby Walsh will take the ride. I just don’t think we have seen the best of this horse who just keeps on improving every year. He is only a 7 year old and has his best days ahead of him. The rain which has fallen at Down Royal today will be appreciated. This horse was 2nd in last years Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival which is a good effort as I always thought he is much better over 3 miles. He would’ve also won the Irish Gold Cup at Leaopardstown in February but fell at the last when travelling all over the others. Ruby Walsh was on board that day and has a good understanding with the horse. WIN. WON 2/1
THOMAS BROWN has missed the Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton to come for this race and that is a tip in itself. I though the had a very good chance in the Badger Ales and that was worth more money so you simply have to take notice now the trainer sends him here. I think he is also on a very reasonable mark of 137 as on his day I have no doubt he is a mid 140 horse – take the 11/2. THOMAS BROWN also goes very well fresh and on his first start of the season his form reads 111. He has never been beaten first time out. I am expecting a big run and his trainer Harry Fry has also been in decent form. WIN. WON 4/1
4:05 Down Royal
Whenever Noel Meade and Nina Carberry team up they often do the business and I think they will end up in the winners enclosure with JOEY SASA who was actually a winner just 5 days ago at Galway. The fact they are running again so soon means Noel Meade is fully confident that the horse is ready to win again. JOEY SASA was quite impressive at Galway 5 days ago beating Champagne Classic by 7 lengths. A repeat of that performance should be good enough to go close in this and at 9/2 I think he is overpriced. WIN. WON 3/1
I have followed the career of NAMBOUR and have always thought he was a chaser in the making. He is by the same sire as Don Cossack (Sholokhov) and those horses are normally bred to be chasers. He is only a 6 year old and I don’t think we have seen the best of the horse yet. NAMBOUR’s form over hurdles is actually very good and he has chased home Up For Review on 2 occasions and that horse is likely to make a very classy chaser. The favourite Free Expression has the experience but NAMBOUR has the class. I am happy with the 7/2 available. WIN. WON 4/1
I am all over DEFINITELY RED tomorrow who is simply the best horse in the race by a country mile. I am a fan of this horse and I think he will be a tough horse to beat tomorrow. He is back over hurdles after spending last season as a novice chaser but I don’t think this will stop his chances. I expect the horse won’t be fully wound up but still won’t be lacking in fitness and I think he will have enough left in the tank to win this race.He actually goes very well fresh and he showed this last season when fishing 2nd in the fixed brush hurdle at Haydock. That was a much better race than todays so if he can do it in that race I am sure he will here. That day he run off a handicap mark of 138 and is only 2lb higher on a mark of 140 for this race. I am happy with the price of 4/1 as I make him a 5/2 chance. WIN. WON 11/4
We were on CLIFFS OF DOVER last Friday when he won with ease at Cheltenham. I said that day Paul Nicholls running a 3 year old, 3 times in 1 week, is a tip in itself. He could quite easily have given the horse a break but he runs here tomorrow for his 4th start in 2 weeks. CLIFFS OF DOVER has had 5 starts over hurdles and is experienced. He is also a great jumper of a hurdle and showed how good he was when winning at Cheltenham last week. We have a few newcomers who could be anything but you can’t buy experience and that is what puts this horse way ahead of the rest. I am going to strike again with this horse while the iron is hot. I make him 4/6 favourite so once again I am very happy with the 11/8 available. WIN. WON 7/4 (2 POINT WIN)
What a race with 3 very good novice chasers having there first start. I think all three have a real talent but on the good ground I am siding with CHARBEL. I respect Top Notch and Le Prezien but all their runs have been on soft ground. I also think CHARBEL looked the most natural chaser of all 3 last season. He is a big horse with plenty of scope who should’ve grown alot over the summer. CHARBEL finished 5th in last years Supreme Novice Hurdle which was a decent effort and has always been at his best on a sound surface. Of the three he is the value bet at 11/4. WIN. WON 7/2
I just can’t see WHOLESTONE getting beat in this. Nigel Twiston Davies has spoken highly of this horse and even mentioned the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle after his win at Warwick last month. WHOLESTONE was impressive that day and won by 10 lengths easily. He has clearly come on from last year and as he is only 5 year old you would expect him to improve with each run this season. WIN. WON 2/1 (2 POINT WIN)
I am quite surprised by the betting here. Adrien Du Pont is favourite but I don’t make him 6/4 and SCEAU ROYAL 11/2. I am not sure how they came up with them prices if I am being honest. In my book I make Adrien Du Pont 9/4 fav but I have SCEAU ROYAL 11/4 and Gibralfaro 7/2. The actual only reason of what puts Adrien Du Pont ahead of SCEAU ROYAL in my book, is the form of Paul Nicholls. The pair met twice last season and on both occasions SCEAU ROYAL got the better of the todays favourite. Last December our selection beat the Paul Nicholls horse comfortably at Cheltenham. The both times they met they faced each other off level weights yet today SCEAU ROYAL is 4lb better off at the weights. None of it makes sense if I am being honest and I am over the moon with the 11/2 available. WIN. WON 9/2
You never see Paul Nicholls running a horse 3 times in the space of a week but that is what he is doing with CLIFFS OF DOVER and you have to take notice. He is only a 3 year old and they are chucking him in the deep end with this handicap, the price of 7/1 is lovely. Harry Cobden takes the ride and claims 3lb off his tiny weight of 10st 2lb. He is thrown in and they are clearly taking advantage here. He absolutely bolted up 5 days ago at Kempton by a huge 18 lengths and this is a horse who is on the upgrade. E/W. WON 7/2
Paul Nicholls is absolutely flying at the moment and his form over the last 7 days reads 111113521111316PU1. Thats 11 winners from 18 runners which is an amazing record. He has MARRACUDJA running in this race and I am very confident he can win this race. He made his debut over fences at Newton Abbot just under a month ago where he was very impressive and jumped really well. He looks a natural over the bigger obstacles and combine this with his front running tactics, he will be hard to get past. Especially if he gets into a nice rhythm which I think he will. Over hurdles he was chasing home the likes of Altior, Winter Escape and Buveur D’Air so we know he has a touch of class. On his debut he looked a much better chaser than he did a hurdler and I believe MARRACUDJA could turn out to be a dark horse to follow in the top novice chases this season. WIN. WON 3/1 (2 POINT WIN)
AS DE MEE is an experienced chaser and I can’t believe he is available at 13/8. He should be 4/7 on so I am delighted to play with the odds available. I believe we are ahead of the trader and I am not sure what race they are looking at. I respect Charmix but this will be his first start over fences. AS DE MEE had 8 starts last year and 4 of them were Grade 1’s. He will be very hard to beat tomorrow and I believe it will be easy money. WIN. WON 10/11 (2 POINT WIN)
I am surprised BLUE SURF is available at 5/2 as I have him well clear of these. You are talking about a horse who is rated 92 on the flat yet is running in a Class 5 maiden hurdle here. BLUE SURF has had one run over hurdles 2 weeks ago and I thought it was an encouraging debut over sticks finishing 2nd. He would’ve learned alot from that run and can only get better. I think he will take some beating here and should really be around the 6/4 mark. WIN. WON 9/4
4:10 Ffos Las
I find GARDE LA VICTOIRE a fascinating price at 7/1. This is his first start over hurdles since January 2015 but you are talking about a horse who won the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham and also won the listed contenders hurdle at Sandown on his final start over hurdles. He was rated 154 when winning that race but just because he has been running over fences they have dropped his mark to 148 which is very winnable off. Some may say he won’t be fit for this and will need the run but he has won 3 out of 4 times on his first start of the season so we know he goes well fresh. He has to give weight away to the leading principles but he has done that in the past when winning the Greatwood hurdle. He carries weight very well. With everything in mind he is way overpriced at 7/1 as I make him around the 7/2 mark. E/W. WON 11/4
I think MINDING will be too strong for these at 2/1 especially getting weight off the likes of Ribchester and Galileo Gold. In fact I think she would beat them off level weights so getting 3lb gives you even more confidence. MINDING is a very versatile horse who has won over distances from 1m – 1m 4f and if I am being honest I don’t think it matters what distance she runs in. She finished 3rd last time out behind Almanzor and Found, Found went and won the Arc while Almanzor is short priced favourite for tomorrows Champion Stakes. I am confident MINDING gets her head in front tomorrow. WIN. WON 7/4 (2 POINT WIN)
CLIFFS OF DOVER looks a surefire winner here. Only a 3 year old trained by Paul Nicholls who gets a huge 1st 2lb from his closest rival and then a nearly 2 stone from the other two horses. This is a huge weight difference which should seal the race for CLIFFS OF DOVER. Paul Nicholls wouldn’t send a 3 year old here if he wasn’t ready to win with. CLIFFS OF DOVER has had 2 starts over hurdles and his form reads 13. It was a good win at Worcester on his debut and although he dissapointed at Market Rasen I did see him travel well enough for a long way to expect the 3 year old to improve further on his next start. I make him 6/4 favourite so we do have a slight edge on the bookies at 2/1. WIN. WON 6/5
Ruby Walsh takes the ride on THREE STARS here and his riding style will suit the horse perfectly. It is a tough ask to beat the favourite Lieutenant Colonel but I think he is there to be shot at especially over 2m 2f as most his races have been over 3 miles. I think he could get found out to the speedier type and THREE STARS ticks that box at 7/2. Disappointed on his debut over fences but he bounced back with a nice win on his 2nd start over the bigger obstacles at Listowel last month. THREE STARS is a very good horse and will love the good ground. He beat the likes of Thomas Hobson last season and finished just behind Bachasson and Long Dog over hurdles which is decent form. On his day he is very smart. WIN. WON 3/1
BARMAN is the bet here for me at 3/1 and I am happy to put a line through his last race as I think he is a better horse than that showing. Before his last start BARMAN rattled up 3 wins on the bounce and looked a horse who was improving with each start. He looked very smart in particular on his penultimate start when scoring by 4 lengths. BARMAN has had a month break and I imagine they have worked with the horse to try to make him settle as he did seem to pull last time out. He is only a 5 year old so that will come with experience and I expect this horse to carry on with his improvement. WIN. WON 15/8
I believe this is a 2 horse race between Johns Spirit and GERMANY CALLING. Before I opened up the betting exchanges I made it 7/4 Johns Spirit and 9/4 GERMANY CALLING. To my delight GERMANY CALLING is available at 7/2 which is a huge price in my opinion. The favourite Johns Spirit does have all the class but has not looked the horse he once was while our selection has been running consistently well throughout the summer. I would be surprised if he is not involved in the finish and I am quietly confident he can get his head in front. WIN. WON 7/4
3:30 Newton Abbot
I am all over NEXT SENSATION and I am very happy with the price of 9/4. We were on NEXT SENSATION back in July when he fell at Cartmel. I have no doubt in my mind he would’ve won that day and the horse has been in my notebook ever since. NEXT SENSATION is rated 129 which I know for a fact he could make a mockery of that handicap mark if on song. You are talking about a Cheltenham Festival winner here and a horse who has a touch of class. Good ground is the key to the horse which exactly what he will get and I am confident he visits the winners enclosure. WIN. WON 7/4 (2 POINT WIN)
As I have said the last 2 days with Urban Fox and Journey the same applies in this race. I see nothing troubling the favourite BEST OF DAYS in this at 5/2. This horse is a very progressive type who started with an impressive win on his debut at Sandown. He was then sent off odds on favourite at York last month but was beaten by a head. It was a race he should’ve been winning but I did think William Buick kicked for home far to early and reached top gear too soon. He was collared on the line by fast finishing Syphax. Had William Buick held on to him a bit longer I am sure BEST OF DAYS would’ve won. BEST OF DAYS is now stepped up in trip and runs over 1 mile for the first time. I think the step up in trip will be appreciated as he can go through the gears more smoothly. His breeding suggests the further he goes the better he will get and tomorrow I believe we will see a big improvement and a very classy horse on show. WIN. WON 6/5
I have tried and tried to get the favourite beat here but I am really struggling. It doesn’t help by the fact that I have JOURNEY priced up as evens favourite in my own book, so the 6/4 available gives us an edge and represents small value. Value does not mean bigger priced horses it means a horse you believe overpriced regardless of what the price is and JOURNEY is in my opinion a bigger price than she ought to be at 6/4. We are talking about a horse who is consistent at Group level and even won a Group 3 last time out. I am very fond of this horse and actually think she is a proper Group 1 horse. She showed this last season when finishing 2nd in the Group 1 Champion Fillies Stakes at Ascot. This race is described as a Class 1 so she is right down in class from the level she is capable of performing at. If she is beaten tomorrow I would be very surprised. WIN. WON 11/8
Wow I am gobsmacked URBAN FOX is not favourite for this – 9/4, thank you very much. Take nothing away from the favourite Unforgettable Filly who looked very smart when winning at Lingfield 2 weeks ago but that was a Class 5 race. URBAN FOX has run in three consecutive Group races and has run well in all of them. At the start of August she finished 4th behind Nations Alexander, only beaten 1 1/2 lengths. She then finished 3rd behind Kilmah in another Group 3 and then on her last start URBAN FOX finished 3rd again behind Rich Legacy, this time in a Group 2. This is absolutely rock solid form. Lets not forget this race is described as a Class 2 so URBAN FOX is right down in class. I think the traders have the prices completely wrong and Unforgettable Filly may turn out to be a very good horse but on all known form its URBAN FOX who deserves to be at the head of the market. WIN. WON 5/6
I am happy to take on the favourite Mount Logan with the Goldolphin horse SKY HUNTER. I personally think he is the better horse and should be close to favourite, if not the favourite. You only have to scroll through his form to see how classy the horse is. SKY HUNTER is a winner at Group 3 and a Group 2 level, whereas Mount Logan is yet to win at Group level. SKY HUNTER was an easy winner at Newbury on soft ground so we know he handles cut in the ground. SKY HUNTER had his first start of the season 3 weeks ago at Kempton and did well to finish 3rd to the decent and fitter Arab Spring. Our selection will improve considerably on that performance and I am confident he will be in the winners enclosure. WIN. WON 5/2
All season LINCOLN has plummeted down the handicap and he is now on his lowest handicap mark for 2 and 1/2 years. He has run a few nice races this season but his best performance came in the Heritage Handicap at Ascot in July when 6th to Librisa Breeze. A repeat of that would be good enough to win this in my opinion. Last year LINCOLN was rated as high as 104 so is 19lb lower of that this season. It is also worth pointing out that this race is a Class 4 and this will be the lowest Grade race he has run in since June 2014. LINCOLN has been mixing it in decent company so this is a big step down in class. It makes the 20/1 on offer look huge. E/W. WON 11/1
I simply cannot see any further than CLEM FANDANGO. He is priced up at 7/2 but I think we have a small margin over the trader as in my book I have him rated as a 11/4 shot. His form is easily the best in race with a 3rd to Lady Aurelia at Royal Ascot which was followed by a 3rd to Mrs Danvers in the Weatherbys Sprint at Newbury. CLEM FANDANGO was then stepped up to a Group 2 on his last start and it was a race won by the impressive QUEEN KINDLY. He had no chance in that race but it shows that he is highly regarded. This step down in class will be appreciated and I would be surprised if he didn’t go close. WIN. WON 3/1
Wow what a price SECRET NUMBER is at 8/1. Ok I have taken into consideration that the horse has not run this season and will be having his first start but just going through his form the horse is very talented. He certainly is not an 8/1 shot and should be more in the 9/2 bracket. SECRET NUMBER is very lightly raced for a 6 year old and has consistently ran well in Group races all his career. You could say this is a step down in class with the race being a Class 1. He has obviously had his problems but if the horse wasn’t right would they bring him back at the ripe old age of 6? I think he is a cracking E/W bet. WON 6/1
SECRET NUMBER 8/1 with Ladbrokes – 0.5 POINTS E/W
YOU’RE HIRED is rated as a 2/1 chance but I have him down as an 11/8 shot. This is a horse who was a winner at the Goodwood Festival back in July on only his 2nd start. To win a race in a very competitive handicap with little experience, is a credit to the horse. He lost his next start at the same track but I think he is a better horse than that and just didn’t turn up on the day. YOU’RE HIRED gets weight off his main rivals and I expect him to continue with winning ways. WIN. WON 8/11
3:40 Doncaster Cup
I think SHEIKZAYEDROAD is a huge price at 10/1 especially after running so well on his last 2 starts. The key to this horse is obviously the trip. Since stepping up to 2 miles or further he has improved. SHEIKZAYEDROAD finished 3rd in the Ascot Gold Cup over 2m 4f. He finished behind todays favourite Mizzou but today is 2f less which I think will benefit SHEIKZAYEDROAD. Our selection then turned up at Goodwood and proved the Gold Cup run was no fluke by finishing 3rd to Big Orange. Another couple of furlongs in that race, like he has today, he would’ve won the Goodwood Cup last time out. 2m 2f is going to be perfect for SHEIKZAYEDROAD in my opinion and is overpriced. E/W. WON 10/3 (1 POINT E/W)
Wow, SIMPLE VERSE available at 9/2 for this against a bunch of mediocre horses. What a bet is all I got to say. The only dangers I see are the three 3 year olds but that is only because of the weight advantage. SIMPLE VERSE is easily the best horse in the race, the ratings don’t lie.
SIMPLE VERSE won the St Leger last year so clearly loves Doncaster and should have no trouble winning this weak Group 2. You don’t win the St Leger if you are not an exceptional horse and SIMPLE VERSE is clearly that. After the St Leger SIMPLE VERSE went and won the Group 1 fillies Champioin Stakes at Ascot confirming how good she is. She has struggled this season but the horses she has been running against are the best of the best and much better than anything in this field. Even with the weight she has to carry I am very surprised she is not favourite. I make her as short as 9/4 so you could imagine my delight when I seen the 9/2 available. WIN. WON 3/1 (1.5 POINTS WIN)
We have 2 selections in this race.
I am happy to take the front 2 on in the market in Blending and Kilmah. Firstly I don’t think Blending is as good as they make out from what I have seen and I don’t think Kilmah wants a mile but 6f or 7f.
I can’t believe GRECIAN LIGHT is available at 7/1 on the back of one bad run at Goodwood last time out. Ok she finished behind 3 of todays runners but she didn’t behave herself that day and seemed to hate the turns of Goodwood. Now she is on a straight course I think she will listen to his jockey more today. She seemed to like the straight when winning on his debut at Newmarket and then finished 2nd on his next start at the same course. She even beat todays favourite on her debut yet is double the price. GRECIAN LIGHT is stepped up in trip here and I think that will bring out a better performance from the horse. E/W. 2nd at 7/1
RICH LEGACY finished 4th on her last start behind todays 2nd favourite Kilmah and also had our other selection Grecian Light behind him. I thought Oisin Murphy gave her a poor ride that day but he stayed on at the end of the race like a step up to 1 mile would be appreciated. It was only her 2nd start at Goodwood so I do think she has plenty left in the tank and more improvement to come. The breeding suggests she wants further and I can see her turning into a quality the further up in trip she goes. I am happy with the price of 9/2. WIN. WON 3/1 (1.5 POINTS WIN)
We all know how good Gordon Elliott is around Perth and he has 2 horses entered in this race. The one I am interested in is MOUNTAIN KING at 15/8 who I believe is head and shoulders above the rest. Last year he was trained by Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson rode the horse most times so it is good to see Gordon Elliott retaining his services. A jockey who knows a horse is half the battle a lot of the time and when it is Richard Johnson it is even better. MOUNTAIN KING also has winning form around Perth so we know he likes the track. He is a horse who has come right down the handicap and should be winning this comfortably. WIN. WON 11/8 (2 POINT WIN)
PACO’S ANGEL behind Rajar when the pair met in July. The difference today is that PACOS ANGEL is 6lb better off at the weights which could be the difference in turning the form around. Richard Hughes has given her a nice break from the track which should benefit PACOS ANGEL even further. E/W. WON 8/1
2:45 Prestige Stakes – Goodwood
KILMAH disappointed on her last start at York 9 days ago but you can forgive that run as it was against some top class fillies in Fair Eva, Queen Kindly and Roly Poly, all of which KILMAH has top class form with, in previous runs. On her penultimate start she finished 2nd behind Fair Eva, the run before 4th beaten just 3/4 of a length to Roly Poly and the run before 6th of 16 behind Brave Anna in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. KILMAH has lots of experience at group level and with her last 4 runs being in 2 Group 2s and 2 Group 3s. This will stand her in good stead here as you can’t beat experience. I also think a step up to 7f will help and although KILMAH is not drawn very well, she is a horse who likes to get on with things and Goodwood is a course which suits front runner’s. She still has to get to the front from stall 9 but I have watched all her replays and she has no problems getting out of the stalls. WIN. WON 5/1
I am very surprised ROSSETTI is not favourite here after winning his last race easily. The favourite is Barman who is trained by Nicky Henderson but if it was the other way around with Nicky Henderson training ROSSETTI he would be favourite. Because of this I make Barman a false favourite. Our selection is trained by Neil Mullholland and is 3 from 4 since coming over from France in May. She was 2nd on her first start in this country but has quickly rattled up 3 wins since. Two of those wins came at Stratford and her last win at the track was her best to date. ROSSETTI won by 11 lengths quickening up nicely in the latter part of the race. I think it will take a good horse to beat this one and although ROSSETTI gives weight away I think she is still capable of landing the win. WIN. WON 7/2
My NAP of the festival and I would be surprised if he gets beat here. The horse in question is BLUE POINT and although he is available at 2/1, I actually make him a 5/4 shot. I respect Mokarris the 2nd favourite but the rain is falling today and into to tomorrow morning and I don’t think that will do him any favours. It certainly didn’t when he went on soft ground at Ascot anyway and although it is not likely to get into the ground to much, it is still a big negative. Anyway back on to our selection who lost his first race to Mehmas last time out. That form is the best around as you all know how highly I rate Mehmas. To be green and still get within a head of Mehmas is a great effort.He even went off 10/11 favourite for the race and today he don’t bump into a horse as good as Mehmas. BLUE POINT would’ve learned so much that day as that was the first time he got in a battle. The horse will know what it takes out of you now and what you need to do to get your head in front. Charlie Appleby loves this horse and rates it as one of his best. The way he won his first 2 starts shows you how good the horse is. On his 2nd start he won by a huge 11 lengths. I really think this horse is nailed on for the win and his breeding suggests any rain that falls will be no problem. WIN. WON 11/8 (MAXIMUM 3 PTS STAKE)
I basically make this a 2 horse race between SCOTTISH and DIPLOMA. I can’t split the both which is why I am backing them both to make a profit. In all fairness you can get 9/2 and 4/1 about them and before I opened up the betting I made them both 9/4. The value is unbelievable. SCOTTISH is the classiest horse in the race, he showed this when winning at Newbury and Ayr. He was unlucky not to win last week but clearly has the ability to bounce back from his 2nd last week. DIPLOMA looks a serious horse on the up. She looked a beautiful horse when winning on her last start here in July. She moved through the race in lovely style and looked to have plenty more in the tank. She gets 8lb from the rest of the field and I believe this will be the difference. WIN. WON 5/1 (1.5 PTS WIN)
BARSANTI leads the way at the head of the market and Roger Varian followers were given a confidence booster when Postponed went in yesterday. There is no doubting BARSANTI is the best horse in the race it’s just determining if he can carry top weight to victory. I am actually confident he can as I think this horse is only going to improve further being a 4 year old. His form is also rock solid. His season got underway on the all weather at Kempton in March. It was an easy victory basically winning as he liked. He then came to York in May and again absolutely bolted up. He beat a good horse that day in Oasis Fantasy barely coming off the bridle. BARSANTI obviously showed connections how talented he was so they stepped him up in class on his next start in the Class 1 Castle Stakes at Pontefract. He came home in 3rd place after being sent off evens favourite. It was probably a race he should’ve been winning but the winner Loving Thing’s has since gone on and run 2 decent races in Group 2 and 3 company. His last start was 6 weeks ago again at York where he again finished 2nd. He did finish in front of a decent horse in Quest For More that day but at the time of that run Roger Varian horse’s were out of form or at least on the decline. He has not had many runners of late but after seeing Postponed winning yesterday it tells me he is ready to fire on all cylinder’s. Anyway BARSANTI is back down in class for this and I am sure he will go close. WON 5/1 (1.5 PTS E/W)
ROUDEE is a horse who’s handicap mark is very winnable off and I am loving the price of 16/1. It was only back in May he finished 3/4 length behind Kimberella. That is the best form in the race after seeing what that horse has done since. ROUDEE has also been to Ripon once and has one win to his name so we know he will handle the track. The return to faster ground will help and the trainer Tom Dascombe has had a couple winners in the last few days. On his day he could walk this race and I believe today could be his day at a huge 16/1. E/W. WON 12/1
2:35 Qatar Richmond Stakes
My nap of the week MEHMAS. Why is this horse a huge 4/1? That is a silly price with only 5 runners. What has this horse done to deserve a price like that. He finished 2nd in ground way to soft at Royal Ascot behind Carvaggio and then won the Arqana July Stakes at Newmarket as easy as you like. He had another of todays runners Intelligence Cross back in 2nd and although he gives that horse 3lb today I believe he had enough in hand which will ensure the form is not turned around. The favourite is Blue Point who was very impressive on his last start but that was a Class 4. This is a big step up in class and although there was a lot to like about the performance he is not going to have it as easy against what I believe is the best 2 year old over 6 furlongs in MEHMAS. WON 7/2 (2 POINT WIN)
3:10 Qatar Lennox Stakes
I am all over DUTCH CONNECTION here. The ground is the key to this horse and given fast ground, he simply delivers. This is exactly what he will get tomorrow and I cant see anything other than a win for DUTCH CONNECTION. He finished 2nd in this last year but the ground went against him with it being Good To Soft. The last time DUTCH CONNECTION won was back in 2015 at Royal Ascot on Good To Firm Ground. He has had his excuses since though as on his next 5 starts he never got the Good To Firm Ground he needs. DUTCH CONNECTION finally got the ground he needs last time out and he put in a cracking effort to finish 2nd to Mutakayyef at Ascot. I think DUTCH CONNECTION will come on for that run especially now he is back down to 7f as I do believe this is his best trip. He clearly loves it around Goodwood as he has been to the course twice and his form reads 12. It’s going to be a great race but I think DUTCH CONNECTION will be travelling better than anything and then asked to win his race which he will do in style. WIN. WON 9/4 (2 POINT WIN)
It is all about FORT DEL ORO. I normally do my best to get the favourite beat but I have found it so difficult this time around I really can’t find an alternative. In fact I make her 5/4 favourite so I am really happy with the 7/4 available. Her form is easily the best in the field and her last run at Curagh when 2nd to Divine just got a boost on the weekend when Divine finished a head 2nd in the Hackwood Stakes behind The Tin Man. FORT DEL ORO was also a winner at this TRACK back in April so we know she handles the course. WIN. WON 10/11 (2 Point Win)
2:45 Market Rasen
Another listed race but this time over the bigger obstacles. I have been through the whole field in fine detail and watched a number of replays and everything keeps coming back to LONG HOUSE HALL. I know this horse has a big race in him and I feel today will be his day. I have watched his 3 starts over fences and I must say bar one mistake when he fell at Cheltenham he is a very good jumper. He made his debut at Bangor last season and won very impressively. He then fell in a hot novice chase at Cheltenham in October and his last start was 6 weeks ago when a decent 4th at Uttoxeter carrying a huge 11st 9lb. LONG HOUSE HALL has also been hurdling during these runs and he put in a terrific performance at this years Cheltenham Festival to finish 2nd to Diamond King in the Coral Cup. That was some effort considering his previous run was his fall at Cheltenham in the October. I love how smoothly he travels between races and he carries just 10st 12lb today which will be appreciated. Dan Skelton will have him spot on for this and he should run a huge race. WIN. WON 6/1
A decent looking race and a race which has been won by Limato and Tasleet in the last 2 runnings. It’s clearly a race for the classy horse and for me no other horse fits the bill better than MOKARRIS at 9/2. We tipped him up at Royal Ascot and I must admit I was confident he would run well of the Soft Ground. This was based on his easy victory at Haydock on Good to Soft Ground and his lovely action. Well hands up in the air as I got that wrong; MOKARRIS didn’t look at all comfortable on the ground and trainer actually confirmed just before race that the horse ‘wouldn’t want Soft Ground’.
We are going to get things wrong in this game but it is how you use the information going forward which matters and we are now in the same situation before he even had a run at Royal Ascot. I will go back to that performance and this was what I sent to members at Royal Ascot.
“The one horse who does stand out for me and looks to be the perfect Coventry Stakes horse is MOKARRIS. I was seriously impressed with his win at Haydock 3 weeks ago and although this is a big step up in class the way the horse moved, tells me he is more than up to this.
MOKARRIS travelled beautifully through his race at Haydock and quickened like a very smart horse. He was a little bit green but that can be expected on his first start. His action was very quick and fluent which is something I look for when a horse is having his first start. He beat Tafaakhor by 2 lengths who is a decent horse himself and the pair pulled a further 3 1/2 lengths of 3rd and the 3rd had 4th back another 3 1/2 lengths. MOKARRIS totally stretched the field. This combined with race being run on ground described as Good To Soft tells me he will have no problem tomorrow and should progress further.”
Now take the Soft Ground out of the above and my opinion does not change. MOKARRIS is the one to beat. WON 9/4
It is not often you see Roger Charlton take a horse over to Ireland and when he does then you simply take note. He has DECORATED KNIGHT in this Group 3 and if this horse doesn’t go close I will be very surprised. This is a horse who since last September has had 5 runs, 3 of which were Group 2 and 3 and the other 2 races were Class 1.
Last season as a 3 year old DECORATED KNIGHT finished 3rd to the classy Time Test in a Group 2 which was followed with a 4th behind Energia Davos in a Group 3. He came back a bigger and stronger horse this season and has put in 3 fine efforts. DECORATED KNIGHT was a winner at Goodwood in May where he stayed on very strongly to win by 1/2 length and then finished runner up at Epsom in a Group 3 on his last start. I would say this was his best performance to date and he only went down by a head to Tulius.
DECORATED KNIGHT is certainly improving fast and I see no reason why he can’t improve further and win this race quite comfortably. In my book I have DECORATED KNIGHT down as a 6/4 shot so the 3/1 available with Betfair is huge! WIN. WON 9/4 (2 point win)
4:35 Darley July Cup
Magical Memory and our Royal Ascot winner Twilight Son head the market but I am happy to take them both on.
LIMATO is a very ground dependant horse and the faster the better. I imagine the going come Saturday will be Good Ground as they have a little bit of rain forecast today. This will be no problem as long as no soft is in the description which is unlikely.
LIMATO was due to run at Royal Ascot but the ground was too soft. In a way I am happy he missed Royal Ascot as the race he was being lined up for was over 1 mile and I am of the opinion that it stretches his stamina and 6f or 7f is his optimum trip. LIMATO on his day is a world beater and in my opinion a classier horse than the 2 who head the market which makes a mockery of the 6/1 on show. He showed his class last season when winning at Doncaster in the Saint Gobain Weber Stakes and also finishing 2nd to the amazing Muhaarar in the 2015 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. LIMATO runs over 6f today which I think is his best trip. He travels so smoothly through races but also gets 7f which for me is the type of horse needed to win the July Cup. WIN. WON 9/2
2:10 Bahrain Trophy
HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT is actually down in grade for this after running in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. That was a hot race where Across The Star’s came home in front. The like’s of Beacon Rock were running in the above race which tells you the kind of form on offer. HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT finished 4th but was only 2 lengths off the winner. Our selection was closing at the line which suggest’s this extra furlong will be right up his street. Trainer Aiden O’Brien could’ve entered quite few for this race so the fact he is happy to send HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT as his sole representative, it is a tip in itself. I think this horse is improving and his breeding suggests the better ground will also help – 5/1 is a solid bet for the opener at Newmarket. WIN. WON 9/2
2:40 Arqana July Stakes
I am very surprised a horse of MEHMAS ability has drifted from 2/1 out to 5/2 in recent days. This horse is all class and is highly rated by trainer Richard Hannon. MEHMAS finished 2nd to the impressive Caravaggio at Royal Ascot in the Coventry Stakes and was beaten by 2 lengths. MEHMAS finished a further 2 lengths clear of 3rd and 6 lengths clear of 6th. Considering this was over 6 furlongs and had 18 runners it was a really good performance. The ground also went against MEHMAS as he would not want Soft Ground in a million years. This again shows what a top performance he put in. Our selection is out of Acclamation and it is known that horses sired by Acclamation do not want Soft in the description. The ground is described as Good to Firm and with the forecast dry it will only enhance his chances. Before Ascot MEHMAS was tried over 5f which he clearly didn’t like but still put in a decent effort to finish 2nd to Global Applause. On his run before at Newbury over 6 furlongs, he easily be that same horse Global Applause so this confirms to me his trip needs to be 6 furlongs. I personally make MEHMAS 7/4 so I am over the moon to get 5/2. WIN. WON 11/4 (2 point win)
5:30 Sir Henry Cecil Stakes
LUMIERE is a proper Group 1 horse who won the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September. Mark Johnson rates this horse a lot and I am surprised she is as big as 4/1 as this is only a Class 1. She also get’s weight from the rest of the field which will be a huge plus. She disappointed on her only start this season in the 1000 guineas but I can always forgive a horse a bad run. Trainer Mark Johnson was actually confident of a big run that day so something was surely a miss with the horse. You could doubt her staying 1m as LUMIERE was campaigned over 6f last year but the fact that Mark Johnson is running her back over 1m after the 1000 guineas tells me he has no doubts about the trip. She is very talented and surely a horse who is capable of winning a Class 1. WIN. WON 3/1
The Gurkha has been all the rage all week and I do think the horse is very good but in terms of value HAWKBILL has to be the bet here. He was an excellent winner at Royal Ascot and that was on Soft Ground which shouldn’t suit if going by breeding alone. I was really impressed by the performance from HAWKBILL. The way he loomed up 2 furlongs out without being asked the question and then as soon as he was asked to win the race he won the race in strides. HAWKBILL has a huge stride and actually stays the whole trip. If this turns into a stamina test HAWKBILL will appreciate it. I am excited to see what else this horse has to offer and to see if he can make is 6 wins on the bounce. One thing for sure is the 8/1 available is overpriced. E/W. WON 6/1
This is all about THE LAST LION who is highly thought of by Mark Johnson. He was 2nd in a Group 2 last time out at Royal Ascot behind Prince Of Lir. He had some very good horses behind that day which included Silver Line, Peace Envoy and Global Applause. It is as simple as repeat that run and you win this race. WIN. WON 10/11 – 2 POINT WIN
4:20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes
As much as I like The Tin Man I still expect TWILIGHT SON to win this especially on the ground at 9/2. We have Ryan Moore aboard which is a massive booking and I think he will be very hard to beat. He has only had 1 run this season and finished behind Magical Memory but should improve massively for that. His form last year on ground with soft in the description reads 112. TWILIGHT SON has had this as his target since finishing 2nd to Muhaarar last season and now a 4 year old should have that bit extra improvement from last season. WIN. WON 7/2
2:30 Jersey Stakes
RIBCHESTER has always been a horse I have rated and he showed his class in the 2000 guineas to finish 3rd. Bearing in mind that was a Group 1 and this is a Group 3 I am very surprised odds of 10/1 available. A 3rd in any guineas is surely good enough to put you to the top of the market. I actually make him 5/1 favourite. RIBCHESTER is down in trip by 1 furlong here but I do think this is his best trip. Our selection is sometimes an awkward ride but the penny seemed to drop in the 2000 guineas and he looked a much more manageable ride. He has obviously matured and grown up now he is a 3 year old. I still don’t think we have seen the best from this horse. He has winning form on Good To Soft and the Guineas was on ground described as good to soft so any cut in the ground will not be a problem. E/W. WON 7/1
My first horse is the American wonder horse TEPIN who I have seen drift from 11/4 to a now best price 9/2. She has simply been written off because of the ground. She was the first horse I tried to eliminate as I wanted to know for my own eyes whether I think she will handle conditions or not. I watched replays of her last 6 runs and TEPIN is a horse who is very light on her feet. Yes she bounces off a sound surface but she also did the same at Keeneland in October in ground described as ‘SOFT’.
It may have been equivalent to our good to soft but my point is the fact she is so light on her feet they don’t get chance to get stuck in the mud. I then went back to the replays to see what type of action she had at the knee and it was to my surprise I found she had a lovely round action, the type of action you would normally associate with horses who like cut in the ground. After this process I am now lead to believe that TEPIN will handle the ground and although this is not certain, bar one race all her starts have been on firm ground I feel she will be fine. TEPIN looks an absolute star and has about 8 gears of which I have only seen the first 4 gears as she has never had to use 5th gear in her last 6 starts. Now the research has been done I am happy to take the 9/2 available. The only negative’s I can find are the fact she has to wear different headgear over here and we don’t know how well she travelled but I can find a lot more negatives on the other horses. TEPIN also gets a 3lb filly allowance. WON 6/1
A decent listed sprint race but no matter how many times I go through the card everything keeps coming back to EASTON ANGEL (11/4). This was a horse going places last season after finishing an excellent 2nd to Acapulco in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. The pair pulled 2 lengths ahead of 3rd and a further 2 lengths clear of 4th. When you consider there were 20 runners and the race was over the minimum 5 furlongs then those distances tell you the kind of horse EASTON ANGEL has the potential to be. After Royal Ascot EASTON ANGEL was stepped up to 6 furlongs on her next 2 starts and flopped. She just didn’t get the 6 furlongs it was as simple as that. On her last start of last season at Ayr she was stepped back down to 5 furlongs and although she was sent off odds on she came home a tired looking 5th. It was a case of a race too many with it being her 6th race of the season. Saying that the winner of the race at Ayr was Quiet Reflection who has since gone on to be unbeaten, taking two Group 3s and was very impressive last month when bolting up in a Group 2 at Haydock. At least we can say EASTON ANGEL was beaten by a very good horse.
Anyway when last season ended, EASTON ANGEL went into my book as a filly to keep an eye on as a 3 year old. She had her first start of the season at York a month ago and won with a bit in hand. To the eye she had trained on from a 2 year old and I felt after the performance she was capable of winning a few more races this season. She beat a good horse in Gracious John that day who has previously beaten today’s joint favourite Ornate. The form says EASTON ANGEL has the beating of Ornate. No rain is forecast for Sandown so the better ground will suit our selection. The faster the ground the better EASTON ANGEL will perform. WIN. WON 2/1
Snow Moon looks a strong favourite for this but although she looked to relish a distance last time out her breeding suggests this step up in trip will test her further. She could be a freak but she is out of Oasis Dream who was a 5f-6f horse and Pivotal also a sprinter. With this in mind I am happy to take her on with ABINGDON at 11/4 who relished the step up in trip last time out when winning a decent maiden at Ascot. It was the same trip as today and the further she went the better she travelled. ABINGDON is out of Street Cry who was unbeaten over todays trip. I think ABINGDON has further improvement to come and although it will be hard to beat the favourite I personally think she is capable of outstaying her. WIN. WON 2/1
GROWL has been knocking on the door all season and I think tomorrow will be his day (at 11/2 best price). He has had 3 starts this season and run well everytime. GROWL has finished 4th with every run this season and the least he faced was 13 runners. Each run only beaten by just 2 lengths. He has been sent off favourite on his last 2 starts which tells you they think he is ready to win with. The ground will be perfect and I believe GROWL will on song for this and win the race. WIN. WON 7/2
STELLAR NOTION is a cracking bet at 6/1 especially against these type of horses. I honestly think he will have too much class especially on Good Ground. This horse is out of Presenting and it is known that these horses need good ground to be seen at there best. STELLAR NOTION is now trained by Henry De Bromhead and came from Paul Nicholls.For an 8 year old he is very lightly raced so could reignite the spark with the change of yards. This horse was rated 137 2 starts ago so the new mark of 130 looks very winnable off. WIN. WON 5/1
GALIZZI catches my eye here at 9/2. He embarked on a National Hunt career and was being trained by John Ferguson. Ferguson retired this season as a trainer to concentrate on working with Godolphin. It’s interesting because he has obviously told Charlie Appleby that this horse should go back on the flat. Before switching codes he had a decent flat career and earned himself a rating of 90 and mixed it at Class 2 and 3. GALAZZI is now rated 88 and is a couple of pounds well in on all known form. Ground will be perfect and I fancy this horse to run a big race. WON 4/1
TIME TEST has to give 5lb away to the field but I think he is more than capable of doing so. This horse is all class and the key to him is fast ground. I have just looked at the forecast at Sandown and the sun will be blazing tomorrow. The ground is currently described as good but come 7:40 tomorrow evening it will be riding very fast. TIME TEST was electric last year at Royal Ascot beating a good field as easy as you like in the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes. He then won a Group 2 at Newmarket. In a recent interview with trainer Roger Charlton he was adamant that todays trip of 1m 2f is his best trip but TIME TEST needs fast ground to be seen at his best’.
I mentioned The Tin Man as one of my top 3 4 year olds to follow this season, well TIME TEST is also in that Top 3. I believe we haven’t seen the best of the horse and he has plenty left in the tank now he is a more mature 4 year old. WIN. WON 3/1
I finally get my chance to see THE TIN MAN. I have him down in my top 3 from 3 years olds of last season, to follow this season. He improved all last season and I expect further improvement now he is a 4 year old. James Fanshawe does well with this type of horse. I was most taken with his performance at Ascot last October when he blew a field apart to win by 4 lengths. That was the day he went in my little book as a horse for next season. I didn’t expect the horse to run 2 weeks later in the Group 1 Champion Sprint Stakes but he did and finished an excellent 4th to Muhaarar with Twilight Son and Danzeno 2nd and 3rd. That performance backed up my book marking and I am excited to see this horse run to see how much he has progressed. WIN. WON 3/1
Its 1-1 with Found and FASCINATING ROCK but today at the prices I am going to side with the Dermot Weld trained horse. With the rain which has fallen I just feel its suits FASCINATING ROCK more than Found and 3/1 is there to be stuck into. I respect Found a lot but 75% of her defeats have come when the rain has got into the ground. When the pair met at Ascot last October the going was described as Good To Soft and our selection came out on top. The pair met again 3 weeks ago and Found was having her 2nd start of the season whereas FASCINATING ROCK was having his 1st start of the season. I am sure our selection would’ve trained on from that and will be much fitter for todays battle. WIN. WON 9/4
I took on BELARDO last time out with Toormore because I thought the ground was to quick for him and it paid off. This time the ground is in BELARDO’s favour and I fancy him to turn the form around with Toormore. When the pair met 3 weeks ago BELARDO was sent off favourite at 13/8 and was well fancied but the ground dried out before the off which ruined his chances. Saying that he only went down by 2 lengths. BELARDO is a real mud lover which he showed when winning on his first start of the season at Doncaster. In an interview afterwards, trainer Roger Varian said if you see him run on soft ground he is capable of winning all the Group 1s this season. He also mentioned the Lockinge in that interview and with everything in his favour and can’t have him out of the frame. E/W. WON 8/1
NAYEL is another who fits my criteria and is a lovely price at 14/1. He is a horse of the unknown but I can see this one progressing nicely. Last year as a 3 year NAYEL was twice a winner and on his sole start this season finshed a decent 4th at Windsor. I watched that race and I thought NAYEL had lots of work left in him so will improve for that run massively. Richard Hannon has put Tom Marquand on board and he claims 3lb. NAYEL carries just 8st 4lb which is a massive weight advantage. He is also overpriced and represents a great E/W bet. WON 12/1
My NAP of the day is KACHY who I am sure can overcome top weight at 5/2. This horse is far superior to the rest and the drying ground will only help his chances. He has had 1 start at Chester and has 1 win to his name. KACHY has a lovely draw in 3 and it is hard to see how he won’t factor. He showed what a good horse he was last year when winning a Group 3 ahead of King Of Rooks at Goodwood and although he disappointed on his first start this season I am taking that with a pinch of salt as I have no doubt there is more to come. This is a drop down in class and I don’t think they will see which what he went. WIN. WON 5/2 (2 pointer)
I know CANNOCK CHASE has to give away 7lb to the field but he is the only horse I feel capable of beating Western Hymn. On his day he is the classiest horse in the race without a doubt. The weights tell us that but I think the key will be the ground. The quicker the better and with the dry forecast, I think the ground will ride really fast tomorrow. He didn’t get going until late in the season last year but when he did we seen what CANNOCK CHASE can do. He destroyed a field at Newmarket in September and then went to Woodbine in Canada and won a Grade 1 claiming £330k in prize money. I am taking a punt but the 100/30 available is attractive for such a good horse. WIN. WON 11/4
A very interesting runner here is NO HERETIC trained by Nicky Henderson. Jump Trainers have a decent record in this race and NO HERETIC looks like he has been plotted for this race. This was a horse who didn’t see the racecourse for 30 months before returning at Newbury a month ago. He has been off the course since 5th September 2013 but Nicky Henderson decides to run him a Newbury to obviously get him fit for this. It will be a terrific training performance but this screams plot if ever I seen one. NO HERETIC is rated 93 by the handicapper but on his last start on the flat 3 years ago was rated 100. He was running against horses like Brown Panther in a Group 2 a few years ago and even beat last winner Suegioo in 2013. Jamie Spencer takes the ride and carries just 8st 13lb. He also has a plum draw in 4 and I’m happy with the 12/1 on show. E/W. WON 11/1
KIMBRELLA handicap mark is getting dangerously low compared to what it used to be. Just a few starts ago KIMBRELLA was rated 97 but is 10lb lower on 87 today. He is a bit hit and miss so hard to tell when a good run is going to come but draw in 3 gives him his best chance in sometime. I can’t explain how important this draw is but that first bend comes so quick and if your at the back of the field it is game over so a low draw is a must. KIMBRELLA has been contesting better races than this and now down in company has a great E/W chance. WON 6/1
This looks a tough race but the horse who catches my eye massively here is FLETCHERS FLYER at 6/1. The trip today is 3m 6f and for me he has always looked like a horse who will stay longer than the mother in law. Reading between the lines I think Harry Fry has lined him up for this race as he has not been seen since January when he was 2nd to the decent Drumacoo. FLETCHERS FLYER is also on a handicap mark of 138 which I think is very winnable off. He also has winning form around Punchestown so we know he handles the track. I think a big run is on the cards. WIN. WON 13/2
Josies Orders is the one to beat but has to give weight all around. I am happy to take him on with QUANTITATIVEASING who gets 8lb from Josies Orders. Our selection was 6 lengths off Josies Orders at the Cheltenham Festival and that was off level weights. QUANTITATIVEASING loves it around this cross country course and goodish ground brings the best out of him and I like the 7/2 available. He finished 2nd in this race last year but i expect him to go one better this year and really serve it up to the favourite. WIN. WON 5/2
This should be easy easy work for AUGUSTA KATE. She is against her own sex and is rated highly by Willie Mullins. On her first 2 starts this season AUGUSTA KATE blew the field away very impressively. She then took on the boys at the Cheltenham Festival in the Champion Bumper. She could only manage 7th but it was a fair effort out of her comfort zone. AUGUSTA KATE was then sent to Aintree where she put in a great effort to finish 2nd to one of our huge tips Kayf Grace. The pair pulled 5 lengths clear of 3rd Shattered Love and a further 12 lengths clear of another of todays runners Copper Kay. She will be going hurdling next season with the mares novice hurdle the likely target but in the meantime I expect her to be winning this race which makes 2/1 a sound bet. WIN. WON 7/2
IRISH CAVALIER may be lumped with top weight but we do have Jonathan Moore claiming 5lb. I fancy his chances here as to me he is by far the classiest in the race so 10/1 is a great bet. This is a horse who has been running in Grade 1 – 3 all season and even managed 5th place in the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival. IRISH CAVALIER also has some decent form around Punchestown with a 4 length 4th to Valseur Lido in last years 3m novice chase and then 2nd behind Blood Cotil 3 days later. If he gets into a nice rhythm he will be hard to beat. E/W. WON 7/1
We were on BELLSHILL at Aintree and that race really done my head in. BELLSHILL should’ve been winning that race and I stated after the race ‘no offence to Patrick Mullins but if Ruby Walsh was on board he would’ve won easily’. The came there travelling strongly between the last 2 hurdles and was not asked to win his race. Had he kicked on the race was won quite easily and we would be looking at odds of 5/4 today. This makes the 9/4 available look decent. Three Miles is what this horse wants which he gets today and with BELLSHILL being out of Kings Theatre the decent ground will be no problem. Ruby Walsh back on board is another huge plus. WIN. WON 2/1
I am happy to get the Punchestown Festival underway by backing the favourite WISH YE DIDNT. 13/8 is actually a decent price considering she won this race last year at odds of 8/13. Edna Bolger has 3 entered in this and the booking of Nina Carberry clearly tells us this is the number 1. WISH YE DIDNT won this race with ease last year and I fully expect the same again this year. Edna Bolger is the best in the business for priming them for one day only and I imagine this has been the plan since winning it last year. The ground is exactly the same as last year and I would be very surprised if she didn’t win this. WIN. WON 5/4 (2 point win)
SPRINTER SACRE should be 4/9 to win this race. I think 11/10 on offer is a huge price. All I hear is Un De Sceaux was not right at Cheltenham, Un De Sceaux was not this at Cheltenham. At the end of the day he got bullied and put in his place by SPRINTER SACRE on the only time the pair have met, its as simple as that. The biggest factor on why SPRINTER SACRE beat Un De Sceaux was the ground. The Willie Mullins horse has never looked comfortable on Good Ground and the ground at Sandown is quicker than Cheltenham was. I also believe Un De Sceaux will get caught out over the railway fences as they come thick and fast. Now on to the legend SPRINTER SACRE who rolled back the years at the Cheltenham Festival. He is simply back no doubt about it. Nico De Boinville asked him to win his race and he went passed them with ease like the old SPRINTER SACRE we knew. I am very confident the same will happen tomorrow especially on fast ground and thats why he will be a max bet from me. WIN. WON 11/10 – 3 point WIN
The one to beat here is obviously Belardo but the ground is drying out and I remember his trainer Roger Varian saying ”Belardo is a better horse on soft ground’ after his win 3 weeks ago. I am not saying he can’t win this as he is very classy and really should be winning this but I am happy to take him on with TOORMORE available at 5/1. He is a very classy horse and with the winter behind us could come out better than ever. TOORMORE is a proper Group 1 horse who has been around for a while and run in all the top Group 1 races. He will always put in a display and in my eyes is value at 5/1. WON 7/2
I find the entry of SO MI DAR very interesting. She won a Class 5 Maiden at Windsor last October and is up in class for this Conditions Race. SO MI DAR has obviously ticked all the boxes over the Winter as this is a bold move putting her against the boys on only her 2nd start. She also gets weight off the field and this is a race John Gosden targets. I think we may see a very good horse tomorrow reading between the lines and I am happy to take the 7/2 available. WIN. WON 3/1
3:20 Newton Abbot
Dormello Mo is the warm favourite but this will be his 11th start of the season as he has been on the go since last May with no rest. His form is not the best on Soft ground either. The Paul Nicholls horse was only out 5 days ago at Cheltenham where he had a tough race so for me is their to be shot at. I am taking him on with ASO who will love the soft and is a tough one to crack and the odds of 5/2 provide value for me. We can forget his last 2 runs as they have been in Grade 1 races in the Arkle and Manifesto Chase at Cheltenham. His previous form is very good and the best of that form was at Market Rasen when he beat Cheltenham Festival winner Ballyalton. A repeat of that run will be good enough to this and at 5/2 is the bet of the race. WIN. WON 6/4
I don’t really see any problems for EMERGING TALENT here and although he is short we might aswell keep the bank ticking over making a little bit of cash. EMERGING TALENT is 6/4 with Betfair if your quick, but is 11/10 elsewhere. I actually have him down as 4/6 favourite so even at 11/10 I still see it as value. Paul Nicholls is now leading the trainers championship and he needs all the money he can get his hands in so EMERGING TALENT will surely end up in the winners enclosure. They hold him in high enough regard so should take charge of this poor field. WIN. WON 5/6
I really fancy VIVALDI COLLOGNES for this race after winning at Warwick in February. Ok it was only 3 runners but he won by 62 lengths. The handicapper has only put the horse up 4lb which is quite lenient as the handicapper can be harsh at times. Paul Nicholls is chasing the trainers title so all his horses will be trying so hard which is an added bonus. Our selection is 2 from 3 over fences this season and I think he will be too good for these today in conditions and a trip which suits. WIN. WON 7/2
DEFINITLY RED is a mud lark trained by Brian Ellison who does well at Northern tracks. Put soft in the description and this horse will run a race. He was a faller at Cheltenham but previous to that he was 2nd to Blaklion who since won the RSA and 2nd to Black Hercules who won the JLT. If that isn’t top form which gets him involved here I don’t know what is. DEFINITLY RED is overpriced at 5/1 and should be favourite in my opinion. WIN. WON 7/4
No matter how many times I have tried get MISTER MIYAGI beaten it is just not happening – this makes the 9/4 a great bet for me and it’s 2 points. The step up in trip should be the making of him. This horse was 6th in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He travelled smoothly throughout but just got done for speed after the 2nd last hurdle before staying on again at the end of the race. MISTER MIYAGI shaped as though he was in need of this step up in trip and should relish the task ahead. Our selection also has Cheltenham winning form when winning at the track in October. WIN. WON 13/8 (2 point win)
IBN MALIK is a horse I have in my notebook from last season as a horse who should do well as a 3 year old at 10/3. He only won once last year but ran some good races in defeat behind Galileo Gold and Emotionless. Was a bit below par on his final start in October but that was after a long season. I expect IBN MALIK to be fit for this race as he was first time winner last season. This is tougher but he should run his race. WIN. WON 3/1
5:15 Goffs Nickel Coin Mares National Hunt Flat Race
KAYF GRACE is huge at 14/1. This Nicky Henderson horse absolutely bolted up last week at Fakenham winning by 53 lengths. That has got to be the widest winning margin over 2 miles right? She went into my notebook after the race and I was half hoping KAYF GRACE would come here. I was over the moon when declarations came in. She lost her first 3 races but they were all on good ground. The moment she set foot on Soft Ground she blew the field apart. This horse will need to improve as this is a big step up but I think the trigger has clicked and she now knows her job. KAYF GRACE went from the front and stretched the field at Fakenham I imagine she will try the same again here. E/W. WON at 14/1
4:40 Betfred Red Rum Handicap Chase
The colours of Trevor Hemmings always catch my attention at Aintree as the owner just loves to have winners at the course. KATACHENKO is handicapped very well and looks to have been trained with this race in mind. He had a spin around Carlisle 2 weeks ago and that was obviously a blowout for this race. Back in October KATACHENKO beat Mon Successeur and even conceded 7lb. That horse was fatally injured but did record a handicap rating of 145. That makes the mark of KATACHENKO look very winnable and 14/1 is a brilliant each way selection for me. E/W. WON at 9/1
3:25 Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle
BETTING WITHOUT ANNIE POWER AT BET 365 and BET VICTOR
I cant see anything beating Annie Power as everything is in her favour but I believe value is around in the betting without her. 5 horses line up and we can get 12/5 about MY TENT OR YOURS finishing 2nd and even if he does win we still make a profit (this is a 2 point bet). I am very happy with that. I don’t quite think people appreciate the achievement of finishing 2nd in a Champion Hurdle with 2 years off the track. That is some performance for a horse to do that. MY TENT OR YOURS will improve for that run and what caught my eye in the Champion Hurdle was the fact he didnt pull like he normally do. Now if I had seen him pull I dont think I would be putting him up as this race is 4 furlongs further. The fact he didnt pull gives me confidence about him getting the trip. I am very happy with this bet and may even have a small bet on the 11/1 with Annie Power but for now I am playing it safe. WIN. WON at 12/5 (2 point win)
2:50 Betfred Bowl Chase
Three horses from the Gold Cup line up here and it will be no surprise to my regulars that I will be siding with CUE CARD (2 point win). I just think he is far superior to these and if he stays on his feet he wins. I was gutted when he fell in the Gold Cup 3 fences out. It’s all about opinions and we will never know but I think if he pinged the fence where he fell, he has the horses behind flat footed and wins by 6 lengths. Like I say we will never know but I am going with the scenario that he did win the race as that is what I believe the outcome would’ve been bar a fall. We would then be looking at a horse who is 4/7 which makes the 5/4 available look decent. CUE CARD has been unbelievable this season with 3 wins on the bounce prior to Cheltenham and I expect him to do the same here. I respect Djakadam but CUE CARD will have too much class and Don Poli should’ve gone for the national and will get done for speed. WIN. WON 6/5 (2 point win)
If TOBY LERONE is going to get his head in front then it is going to be today. He is a quirky horse but talented at the same time. He is trained by Dan Skelton who is a man in form at the moment with the majority of his horses running big races. TOBY LERONE was a winner first time out this season but put in 2 poor performances on his next 2 starts. His last start was a decent effort finishing 2nd to Vic De Touzaine. He had horses like Prideofthecastle behind that day so he was back on form. He has also been dropped 1lb by the handicapper so 9/2 is a fine price in my book. WIN. WON 11/2
DRAYTONIAN looked a horse to follow at the start of the season when finishing 3rd to the decent Charmix on his first start over hurdles. This was followed by an easy win at Wetherby. His last 2 starts have been disappointing but both were better races than today. Being out of Kings Theatre you would expect him to prefer Good Ground but this horse has an action suited to soft ground and all his early season form was on soft ground. The rain forecast overnight will help his chances as will the 4lb drop in the handicap. I can’t help but think he is a better horse than the 122 handicap mark he is now on and 8/1 is great value. E/W. WON 8/1
My tip of the day is ADRIEN DU PONT at 5/2 (2 point win). Paul Nicholls thinks a lot of this horse and the fact he was left away from Cheltenham and kept for this very race is a tip in itself. He has to give weight all around but I think he is more than capable of doing so. He was a Grade 1 winner last time out at Chepstow and his previous run was at Cheltenham in December. That was probably his best effort going down by just 1 length to a very classy horse in Sceau Royal. I simply think ADRIEN DU PONT will have too much class for these. WIN. WON 13/8 – 2 POINT WIN.
I have been through this card trying to get the favourite SUTTON PLACE beat but I simply can’t no matter what angle I use. I then priced up the field using my own book and I have him down as 6/4 favourite. The 9/4 available makes him a value bet according to my book. This horse is improving fast and I liked the way he won a Listed Novice Hurdle at Naas last time out, quickening up very nicely to beat another of todays runners Royal Caviar. Gordon Elliott has really looked after this one and is a horse to follow for sure. WIN. WON 13/8
BALLYBOLLEY was a runner at Kempton last week and ran a great race to finish 3rd. What caught my eye that day was his jumping. He pinged almost every fence and took a few lengths out of the field at each fence. He done it from the front last week and probably went a bit to quick and set it up for others. I imagine this week they will save a bit of energy somewhere around the course. The drop back in trip will also be appreciated. After last weeks performance BALLYBOLLEY went into my notebook as a horse who will be winning soon and the fact he runs 7 days later is a clue in itself. WIN. WON 4/1
The big one the Dubai World Cup. It is simply CALIFORNIA CHROME race to lose. He finished 2nd in this race last year but was not 100%. The reports are that this horse is flying this year and is a 5 length better horse. If this is true the price of 15/8 is huge in what you would call a 2 horse race. I have no doubt he will win tomorrow the only negative would be the draw but I am sure he will overcome that. WIN. WON 15/8 (2 point WIN)
ALBEN STAR loves this race. He won it back in 2014 and was 2nd last year. He obviously comes alive at this time of year and for a horse who has that form in this very race I am surprised he is as big as 10/1. He is obviously trained with one race in mind all year around so we know he will be spot on for the task ahead. E/W. WON 7/1
4:10 Foxhunters Chase
ON THE FRINGE should be 7/4 for this so 3/1 available is amazing. We were on him last year when he won the race and I see no reason why he won’t be victorious again. He is the classiest horse in the race and can’t believe he is so big. He showed how good he was last year at both Cheltenham and Aintree so bookies have this wrong. WIN. WON 13/8
ANTEPOST MEMBERS ALSO ENJOYED A BIG PAYOUT ON THIS LUCKY 15 which so nearly became the full 4/4:
ALTIOR – 8/1 (won)
SPRINTER SACRE – 4/1 (won)
THISTLECRACK – 9/4 (won)
DJAKADAM – 4/1 (placed 2nd)
I will start with a trixie for the day on 3 horses who will be very hard to beat.
2 POINT TRIXIE WON at 7/1
3:30 World Hurdle
I can’t have THISTLECRACK beat here and I am going to go a 2 points win at 11/8. At the end of the day I think he should be a 4/7 chance and if he was trained by Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls I am sure he would be. He has been amazing all season and has blown me away. A real star of a horse who will take some beating. WIN.
THISTLECRACK 11/8 with William Hill – 2 POINT WIN
People will call me mad with this selection but BOBS WORTH at 50/1 is absolutely huge. He should never be that price just for the horse he is. He needs Good Ground and at the rate it is drying out it is doing him massive favours. He is obviously not the horse he used to be but your still talking about a horse who has won a Gold Cup, RSA and Albert Bartlett and his Cheltenham form reads 1111156. He loves it around here and we can forget his 6th here last time out as the Heavy Ground was against him. Good Ground brings out the best in him. E/W. PLACED 3rd at 33/1
2:10 Pertemps Hurdle
We have 2 selections in this race.
ARPEGE D ALENE is a very interesting runner in this and I am very keen on him. This is a horse who is highly thought of by connections and was actually one of Paul Nicholls horses to follow for the season. He started over fences but had his problems so reverted back to hurdles. He also received a breathing operation before his win at Chepstow 3 weeks. Paul Nicholls was actually surprised he went and won his last race as he felt he wasn’t quite ready. If he was surprised then it goes to show what a top performance it was and he can only improve further. Last year he beat a very good horse called Tea For Two and always looked like a horse going to the top. I am surprised he is as big as 16/1. E/W. PLACED 2nd at 16/1
TAGLIATELLE may have to carry top weight but we also have the talented Jack Kennedy claiming 3lb off his back. We seen what Gordon Elliott is capable of in handicaps with yesterdays winner Diamond King and I believe he he has targeted this race all season. This horse ran a cracker in last years Coral Cup to finish 4th beaten just a length. He then went and won at Aintree beating a good horse in Call The Cops who actually won this race last year. Decent value at 16/1. E/W. PLACED 4th at 16/1
1:30 – Yanworth (place)
2:10 – More Of That (place)
3:30 – Sprinter Sacre (win)
4:50 – Diego Du Charmil (win)
0.5 points Lucky 15
3:30 Queen Mother Champion Chase
People may think I am mad to take on Un Des Sceaux but for me has so many negatives. No doubting his ability but he is a quirky horse who prefers soft ground which he won’t get here. He won’t get an easy lead, may light up after the parade which could unsettle him and jumping can sometimes be an issue. He is there to be shot at in my opinion with SPRINTER SACRE who loves Cheltenham and the fast pace will set up perfectly for him. I know he is not the same horse he once was but at one stage in the race Nico has to make his move ask SPRINTER SACRE to win the race. I would like to see how the favourite reacts to that. Our selection also loves good ground and it is clearly riding quick. 11/2 is a great price in my opinion and if this horse wins the roof will go off. WIN. WON 11/2
4:50 Fred Winter Hurdle
How happy am I to see the price drift on DIEGO DU CHARMIL. This Paul Nicholls French horse is thrown in and I have heard he is good enough to go for the Triumph Hurdle but need to take advantage of his handicap Mark. He is going to take some beating in my opinion on mark of 133 and could be at least 10lb well in on the handicap. E/W. WON 7/1
1:30 Supreme Novice’s Hurdle
All eyes will be on Min here who is trained by Willie Mullins and owned by Rich Ricci. The pair have won this race 3 years running with Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan. I am happy to take Min on as I do believe he is a hype horse and his price is basically down to the fact of the success of the 3 previous winners. Min is 2 from 2 and looked solid never coming off the bridle. I dont think he really beat much on those 2 starts and I am a bit concerned by how keen he is through his races. He will find it hard to win this if he pulls like he has previously and certainly looks vulnerable.
I am going to take him on.
Nicky Henderson has 2 live chances in this race but for me ALTIOR is the one to side with. I am a big fan of ALTIOR. He just gets better and better with each run and I am sure he will improve again at Cheltenham. He was very impressive at Kempton over Christmas beating a good horse in Open Eagle who has franked the form twice since. ALTIOR also has Cheltenham winning form and you know he keeps finding and will fly up the hill. He may hit a flat spot but he showed at Kempton what he found when asked the question. Like I say, a proper Cheltenham horse. If he is besides Min at the last hurdle I know who I would be siding with. He is as tough as they come and you know he will stick his neck out for you. WIN.
ALTIOR 4/1 with most firms. WON 4/1
2:50 Ultima Handicap Chase
I can’t leave out is UN TEMPS POUR TOUT. We have been on this horse all season and I would be kicking myself if he went in here. On all old form over hurdles he is actually thrown in on a mark of 148. Throughout the season we have been backing him and looking a bit further into his breeding, hands up I may have got it wrong. I have been of the opinion he has always wanted soft in the going because he has previous winning form in heavy ground. This actually may not be the case as he is out of a horse called Robin Des Champs the same as our previous tip Tombstone. Robin Des Champs has produced horses like Vautour and Quevega who all want good ground. At the start of the season this horse was the RSA favourite and he was also purchased for a whopping £425k back in 2014. The potential is there and although he seems to have been around forever UN TEMPS POUR TOUT is still actually only a 7 year old. Comparing his hurdle rating of 163 the chasing rating of 148 looks tiny. E/W.
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT 16/1 with Bet 365 and William Hill – WON 11/1
Le Prezien – 3.30 Kelso
No write up today due to time constraints with Cheltenham around the corner.
6/4 is available at most bookies – 2 point WIN. WON 13/8
GEVREY CHAMBERTAIN run in a race similar to this 3 starts ago and duly obliged. He is hit and miss but I think his handicap mark of 145 has been doing the damage on his last few starts. In lesser company and on a mark of 140 I think he could go close. The bogging ground will be right up his street and he will be staying on when others have had enough. At 11/2 GEVREY CHAMBERTAIN is a decent bet. WON 9/2
SUGAR BARON was very well supported in Class handicap hurdle at Ascot just over a month ago and was sent off co favourite. The Nicky Henderson horse disappointed but like in my previous tip you have to forgive a bad run sometimes. As a novice this horse looked ridiculously good when at Newbury last year. SUGAR BARON showed real promise and is highly thought of by connections. Today will be his first start at 3 miles but I think it will bring out the very best in the horse. He is out of Presenting who has produced some very good stayers and 6/1 is great value. WIN. WON 5/2
I am all over SAMETEGAL here off a handicap mark of 143. I think he could be a better horse than that and this drop down in distance will help him get home. He started his jumping career in good fashion when winning at Huntingdon in November but probably took a confidence knock when falling on his next start. He then finished 2nd to More Of That before getting caught on the line at Musselburgh on his final start. This is a horse who needs to go left handed and although Sam Twiston Davies is not firing we know Paul Nicholls string are flying at the moment. E/W. WON 7/1
The Alan King trained Gibralfaro is well respected and has looked good on 2 starts this season. No doubting his ability but he does have to give weight all around which is not always easy as a Juvenile. I am going to take him on with ZUBAYR who cost a whopping £390k. You simply don’t spend that money on horse that is not up to this. He is highly thought of by connections and I believe this could be the yards Triumph hurdle horse. His form on the flat in France is quite fair and his breeding is impeccable. We don’t know how he will take to the hurdles but with the price tag of £390k surely the 6/1 with Paddy Power is too big. WIN. WON 9/1
At the start of the season ARPEGE D’ ALENE was Paul Nicholls to follow but he has massively disappointed over fences so now reverts back to hurdles. The last I heard it was a problem with his breathing but has now received a breathing operation and I think we will see the real ARPEGE D’ ALENE today. Based on his form over hurdles last year I actually think he is fairly treated on a handicap mark of 140. He beat a good horse in Tea For Two last year and that horse has gone onto better things. If the breathing op has done the job it is supposed to do he will be very hard to beat. WIN. WON 13/2
3:10 Ffos Las
Trainer Iain Jardine has made this 620 mile round trip with CALCULATED RISK so we know it will not be a wasted journey. The prize money is just £2500 and he is willing to travel 620 miles is a tip in itself for me. CALCULATED RISK was rated 130 by the handicapper on 10th November. Just 3 months later and more runs he is now rated a huge 19lb lower on a mark of 111. Surely that is too big a drop and he should win this comfortably. WON 7/4 – 2 POINT WIN
The race of the day one in which I think we will see SILVINIACO CONTI get back to winning ways. This is a class horse who is obviously not as good as he used to be but should still be good enough to beat this field. He is a 2 time King George winner as well as 4 other Grade 1 wins to his name. He clearly disappointed in the King George but should have too much class for these here. I personally think his jumping will put these to the test and he will jump them into the ground. WON 10/3
It’s frustrating when you work 3 hours studying form and pricing up your own market to find only one mistake from the bookies and it happens to be a favourite STILLETTO who is 11/8. I am still going with it as in my market I make this horse 4/5. Although you wouldn’t think we are getting value, I believe we are ahead of the bookies on this one. STILLETTO was a faller 3 fences out last time out at Wincanton when he had the race at his mercy. I have no doubt he would’ve of won the race and had he gone in I am sure STILLETTO would be 4/5 or even 4/6 for this race. Coming to jump the 3rd last he was still on the bridle so it was only a case of sending him on to win. His previous start was at Newbury where he finished 2nd to Violets Dancer. That form just got a boost on the weekend when he beat Lami Serge at Warwick. STILLETTO first start over fences was over todays trip at Catterick where he beat a decent horse in Amore Alato who has since gone on and run well a number of times. I would be very surprised if STILLETTO was beat here given a clear round. WIN. (2 Point Win). WON 7/4
Beveur D’ Air is the hot favourite here and has looked very impressive on both starts. I think he is a good horse but he has not really beaten anything and he will have a far harder race against POLITOLOGUE today who for me is real value at 11/4. It is basically a 2 horse race and in my book I make it 4/7 Beveur D’ Air and 7/4 POLITOLOGUE. The fact we can get 11/4 makes it a no brainer. Our selection is highly thought of by connections and I have no doubt he has plenty of improvement left in him. He made his debut for Paul Nicholls at Cheltenham in December where he Unseated Sam Twiston Davies. He was travelling beautifully before getting spooked and I have no doubt he would’ve won that race. On his last start at Newbury it was just a case of bumping into a very classy horse in Barter’s Hill. He finished 7 lengths off him which looks good form considering that horse is now 5/2 for the Albert Bartlett. POLITOLOGUE is back down in trip which I think will help as will the Soft ground. WIN. WON 2/9
I have UNOWHATIMEANHARRY down as 7/2 so I am well happy with the 5/1 available. Harry Fry has worked his magic this season and the horse has improved so much. He has had 3 starts and won every race. UNOWHATIMEANHARRY is a proper stayer and will just keep on finding. This horse is part of the Harry Fry Racing Club so I imagine the trainer will have a huge soft spot for this horse and would’ve been looked after really well and kept in perfect condition. On his last start he was a Cheltenham winner in December and has only gone up 1lb for that win. Noel Fehily gets on well with the horse and I am confident of a huge run. WIN. WON 7/2
2:15 Gowran Park
We were on SMASHING last time out when he jumped his rivals into the ground at Thurles 2 weeks ago. His biggest asset is his jumping and his love of Soft Ground. SMASHING is a front runner and I believe he will take some catching out in front. He is also a 7 year old and I think he is still improving and should do well at 13/8. WIN. WON 9/10
HOUBLON DES OBEAUX is quite a strong fancy here. He loves it around Newbury and boasts 2 great 2nds at the track in the 2014 Hennessy Gold Cup and a 2nd in this race last year against Coneygree. He finished just 7 lengths off Coneygree last year and it was a top effort. Has not been in the same form this season but I imagine this race has been the plan all season and HOUBLIN DES OBEAUX will be spot on. Venetia Williams trains this horse and she has been flying this year particularly in testing conditions which this horse will love. WIN. WON 4/1
3:05 Market Rasen
A race with just 4 horses and arguably you could make a case for all 4 of them. For me though I really like POINT THE WAY. I have watched his last 2 wins and he is going to be a tough nut to crack out in front. POINT THE WAY has been as game as they come in his last 2 runs and basically grinds his opposition into the ground. You may get a horse who looks to be travelling better but you try and pass this horse and he just keeps finding. The favourite is Onefitzall who is respected but he folded tamely last time out which for me makes him vulnerable if he had to dig deep against POINT THE WAY. Sharpasaknife looked good on his win last time out but the opposition are up to debate and the same goes for Tanarpino. Our selection would normally have to give weight all around but with Megan Carberry on board he actually carries less weight than everyone else at 11st 7lb. Brian Ellison horses are running well at the moment and I am very happy with the 4/1 available. WIN. WON 4/1
2:25 Sandown – Scilly Isles Chase
A two horse race for me between Tea For Two and Bristol De Mai. Tea For Two was very good at Kempton in the Kauto Star Novices Chase and looks sure to have a bright future over fences but I think BRISTOL DE MAI could be better. I rate this horse massively especially being a 5 year old with so much improvement left in him. BRISTOL DE MAI is a fantastic jumper and even gets 3lb off favourite Tea For Two so has the advantage. One thing for sure is it is going to be a great race but I think BRISTOL DE MAI will be the speedier horse in the closing stages and at odds of 5/2 I’ll happily snap that right up. WON 10/11
3:00 NEPTUNE NOVICE TRIAL
This is a great trial but for me only 3 horses with a chance here.
All YANWORTH has done this season is improve and I really think he could be a star in the making. He has always been highly praised by Alan King and even after watching him finish 4th in the Cheltenham Bumper last year, I knew this horse was going on to better things. He was babyish last year and much the same on his debut over hurdles. Since then he has blossomed. On his 2nd start over hurdles he beat a useful horse in Le Prezien who has gone on to frank the form. On his last start he was even better and won on the bridle, as he liked. YANWORTH is stepped up in trip today but has always looked like who would stay that bit further and besides you need a horse with a bit of speed to win the Neptune. WON 2/1
1:50 Betbright Trial Chase
SMAD PLACE who at 8/1 is a cracking bet in my eyes. I just hope Wayne Hutchinson lets HIM bowl along in front and let his jumping put the others to the test. I was seriously impressed in the hennessy and I think he could get a few of these out of there rhythm if he goes from the front. Particularly Djakadam as I think if he don’t get his own way then he could be vulnerable. So my tip of the race is SMAD PLACE 7/1 E/W. WON 9/2
I make SMASHING evens favourite here so was delighted to see the price of 7/4 available. This horse has done nothing wrong over fences and is a brilliant jumper. SMASHING has run in 2 Grade 1s, one at the Cheltenham Festival in the Arkle a race won by Un De Sceaux and then at Fairyhouse in a race won by Gilgamboa finishing 3rd. He had horses like Gitane Du Berlais, Valseur Lido and Apache Stronghold behind him which is rock solid form. The softer the ground the better for him and I really cant see why SMASHING will lose this today. WIN. WON 9/10
Captain Chaos looks the horse to beat but I was surprised to see CHAMPERS ON ICE as big at 9/2. That is too big in my opinion as David Pipe rates this horse very highly. He was 2nd here behind Shantou Village in November and then won at Newbury on his next start. He hit nearly every hurdle at Newbury and still won which shows what a good horse he is. His jumping will need to improve but I am sure David Pipe has been working on that big time at home. All his wins have also come on Soft Ground and the breeding is impeccable. He is out of Robin Des Champs who happens to have sired the likes of Vautour and Quevega. WIN. WON 5/2