In an ideal world of course it would have been nice to have a couple of picks, like we do on the Scoop 6 but even so, I am confident our selection goes very close.
Generally from a tipping point of view it is a bit different when it comes to the Scoop 6 Bonus. Yes we are looking for the winner whether it be a tip in the race or looking for the Bonus winner but if we were tipping in the race, we would look at value and spot bookies mistakes, value goes out of the window on the Bonus Race, we simply want the winner.
During my race study I narrowed the race down to 4 selections, those being the first 4 in the market. Yes I could have looked at horses at big prices who no doubt offer value but I am sure we would have a few unhappy syndicate members if I went and put up a 20/1 shot when £308k is on offer. Genius if it did come off but the backlash would, I am sure be – ‘what are you doing’.
CONCLUSION
You could make a strong case for all of the above but I have visualised everything about this race and for me, everything points to GA LAW. Let’s get the negative out of the way and that is the fact he has not been around Cheltenham but the same could be said about French Dynamite and even Il Ridoto, who although has been around Cheltenham, he has not run well at the course. The only one with course form from the horses mentioned above, is Stolen Silver. Now it is my job to assess whether I think GA LAW will handle the course and I think given how well he jumps, he is made for these Cheltenham Fences. I am assuming that the plan will be to resort to his usual tactics of being prominent and letting his jumping test those in behind him. If GA LAW adopts these tactics, and I can’t for the life of me see why he wouldn’t, this race really could fall into his lap. Let’s look back to the last 4 years and 2 of the winners (Baron Alco and Coole Cody) won from the front. Last year’s winner Midnight Shadow was also prominent, while Happy Diva was mid division. That tells me it pays to be prominent and apart from GA LAW last run at Aintree, when they were just getting a run into him out the back of the field, he has always been a front runner or prominent. French Dynamite also likes to be up with the pace which is a positive for him while Stolen Silver is a mid division horse while judging from Paul Nicholls comments about ll Ridoto ‘will enjoy a fast pace so he can come from off the pace’, he will be held up and I don’t fancy being a horse who needs luck in running in a messy race like the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Now on to the all important handicap mark, with Stolen Silver being rated the highest at 150. In my opinion I don’t think he is a 150 horse. He was rated 144 at the Cheltenham Festival (primed) and could only come home 4th to Coole Cody at 110% fit. Yes he won his final start impressively but the point being Stolen Silver got found out on marks of 145 and 144, in these types of races last season.
Il Ridoto has come down the handicap to a mark of 140 and I think he could possibly be better than his current mark, given he is only a 5 year old. Trouble is this is a very hot race and he won’t be able to race freely as he did last year and neither will he have it easy coming through a wall of horses. Personally I think he will come on an awful lot and learn an awful lot in this race, that he will be primed for the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup in December (you heard it here first).
French Dynamite is rated 148 and once again he could be better than that mark but Mouse Morris thinks he is possibly just short of graded company and possibly a handicapper. If that is the case you are talking about a horse whose ceiling is between 148 – 153.
GA LAW is rated 142 and I have no doubt in my mind he is ‘very well handicapped’. I actually can’t believe the handicapper kept him on 142 after finishing like a train in the Old Roan Chase to come home 3rd. He ran in that race after 603 days off the track and basically what the handicapper is saying is ‘he has no more improvement to come’ . We are happy to keep him at 142. Well thank you very much as I believe GA LAW could be a Grade 2 or Grade 3 horse, rated as high as 155 at best. He will come on tons for his Aintree run and I know some people talk about the ‘bounce factor’ on their 2nd run after a long lay off but I just think that term is used to look fancy and there is no such evidence of it being a thing.
Taking you back to GA LAW novice days as a 4 year old with so much talent and was able to win a Grade 2 Rising Star Novice Chase, by a huge 22 lengths. He jumped his rivals into submission and even back then you just knew he was better than 142. On his next start he came home 3rd in a Grade 1 Henry VIII Novice Stakes, to Allmankind and Hitman. Both those horses are now rated 160 and 159 over fences while GA LAW still remains on 142, mainly due to the fact he has not raced because he was off the track for 603 days. Think about it logically, connections thought this horse was up to Grade 1 company as a novice and he showed it on the track, yet a couple of years later he is floating around on a mark of 142 primed for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, at the tender age of 6. How many pounds does this horse really have in hand as I would go 10 – 15lb.
Now on to the all important ground which looks like it will be good to soft ground. I think this ground makes it a level playing field for all of the above and certainly a ground in which GA LAW will be very happy.
So just to summarise how I see the race being run and the visualization I have in my head. Coole Cody will go off in front and will be tracked by GA LAW, French Dynamite and Editeur Du Gite. GA LAW will keep pinging fences in behind and after the 3rd last fence coming around the bend to the 2nd last fence, GA LAW will jump to the front while Coole Cody gets in tight to the 2nd last fence. GA LAW will have a couple of horses in behind trying to get to him coming to the last fence but GA LAW jumps the last in front and starts his run up the hill, a few others in behind that include French Dynamite and II Ridoto are starting to close but GA LAW low weight and handicap mark are crucial, as he kicks on again when the others behind don’t have the legs up the hill to win by 1 1/2 lengths.
Anyway what will be will be guys but I hope you can see from the detailed write up that every angle has been thought about and I really could not have worked any harder. Those who work the hardest generally get rewarded and I am super confident GA LAW can do the business for us.
I am a great believer in that if you believe something will happen enough, it will happen. Let’s be confident and let’s get this £308k in the bag.
COME ON GA LAW let’s win money ‘Galore’….
