2:40 Newmarket
LIMATO – 3/1 Ladbrokes and Coral – 1.5 POINTS WIN
I have tried and tried to get LIMATO beat but everything just keeps coming back to the horse. I see the race as mostly handicappers stepping up to Group class and the only danger I can find, is Sir Dancealot and even then, I can’t see how he gives LIMATO 5lb in weight.
It is the form of LIMATO around Newmarket which just keeps drawing you in, particularly over 7f. He has run over 7f at the course 4 times, with his form reading 1112. Those 4 runs were in three group 2s and a group 3, with his only defeat coming against Mustashry on good to soft ground, which was against him.
I think everything is in his favour at this level. He will love the fast ground, he loves Newmarket, he loves 7f and sometimes you just have to go with what is staring you in the face, even as an 8 year old. The one to beat and I can see him going off around 9/4. WIN.
7:15 Curragh
SANTIAGO 3/1 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN
The Irish Derby and my first impression is it looks a very weak renewal. Certainly not a proper group 1 and with the line up could easily pass as a Group 2. Aiden O’Brien fields 6 of the 15 runners, as you would expect from a trainer like him and the calibre of horses he has got.
The one I am massively keen on is SANTIAGO and if Royal Ascot was not 8 days ago, then I would have him in as a 2 point win bet. I have dropped 0.5 points confidence wise, because it is the only negative I can find about the horse, the fact he only ran 8 days ago. Saying that I would not say it was a hard race and he won the race relatively easy.
I really think this is a proper horse and a proper group 1 horse. He stays for fun and is a future Gold Cup horse in the making. His last race was over 1m 6f at Royal Ascot, so he is dropping down in trip, although I don’t think he will be inconvenienced. I am sure one of the O’Brien horses will make the running and make sure he gets the pace required.
Sammie Heffernan had the choice out of all 6 horses and he has chosen to ride SANTIAGO. I think this horse will go off shorter than the 3/1 and I can still see plenty of value given how impressively he won at Royal Ascot. WIN.
