Epsom Oaks Preview with JPW Racing Tipster
A race which was won by the great Enable last year and this year 9 horses are set do do battle.
This race has been won by some greats over the years and I think this race along with the Derby is a huge test for any racehorse. The race starts with an uphill climb. Right from the off these 3 year old fillies will face the demands of the course. You then have a level right turn followed quickly into a left turn. It is downhill after the bend before horses then have to climb the final furlong uphill.
This is a real test of stamina on good ground so with the ground described as soft, it is going to put a greater amount on strain on stamina.
I believe those who don’t fully stay the trip will be found out on the ground. I also believe you have to be a very well balanced horse with all the turns going uphill to downhill.
I don’t believe this is the greatest renewal we have seen and as Oaks go, this is pretty poor.
I will now go through the race in detail, starting with the favourite.
(Time Of Writing – 12:45pm 31st May)
WILD ILLUSION – 5/2 available
The ground will be no problem for this horse as she won on soft ground at Chantilly as a 2 year old. Her last start was in the 1000 Guineas just over 3 weeks ago. She finished 4th that day and it was a decent performance. All her runs have been over 1 mile and considering she started her career over 1 mile, trips of 1m 4f have obviously always been the plan. Her breeding suggests she will stay the trip and WILD ILLUSION is a horse who likes to get on with things which will stand her in good sted.She has to be involved on all known form but the two questions are:
Will she stay the trip? Is she too short at 5/2?
MAGIC WAND 9/2 available
The chose of Ryan Moore and this horse was the winner of the Chester Oaks which Enable won last season before winning the Oaks. She beat another of todays runners Forever Together than day and will have no problem seeing out the trip. She is clearly improving but will she improve enough to be an Oaks winner?
TOGETHER FOREVER 6/1 available
Second to Magic Wand in the Cheshire Oaks but had to be switched not once but twice. Magic Wand had first run on her and the ship had sailed before FOREVER TOGETHER could get going. I really think she would’ve gone close had she not been switched twice. Donnacha O’Brien takes the ride and I think this is a positive as he was aboard at Chester. I think this is a positive as he got to know the horse that day and when asked to quicken she took off after her interference. She has to improve again but she is certainly going in the right direction. Will have no problems with the trip but slight ground concerns.
BYE BYE BABY 7/1 avaiable
Out of Aiden O’Briens 5 horses this is the one who will enjoy the ground in my opinion. A winner last time out in a Group 3 at the Curragh and again trip will be no problem. Only concern is jockey booking suggests she is the 4th best of the O’Brien lot.
PERFECT CLARITY 7/1 available
A very interesting runner for Clive Cox and is sired by Nathaniel, the same sire as last years winner Enable. She was the winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial in good enough fashion and that trip is over 1m 3 1/2f. She will stay I have no doubt about that and conditions should be ok if we go on breeding. The question I have is, is she good enough? She wasn’t travelling great last time out but grinded it out and won going away in the end. I think other horses in this race could improve past her.
GIVE AND TAKE 11/1 available
We were on GIVE AND TAKE when she won the the Musidora Stakes at York 2 weeks ago. She comes into the race with perfect preparation after 2 runs this season. Her season started with a good 2nd at Sandown behind Crystal Hope on soft ground which tells me she will handle the ground. That was over 1m 2f. Her next start was at York in the Musidora Stakes over 1m 2 1/2f. She stayed on all the way to the line to win like a horse who wanted a step up in trip. Breeding wise she is not your typical Oaks winner but in 5 starts she has not finished out of the first two. She also finished 2nd to Wild Illusion on her 2nd career start and she is 5/2 fav. GIVE AND TAKE is fast improving and has experience on her side.
I CAN FLY – 14/1 avaialble
I can’t have I CAN FLY one bit. She is out of sprinter Fasnet Rock and her dam didn’t run over further than 1 mile. Unless she is a freak I can’t see how she will stay this trip on Soft ground.
EJTYAH – 20/1 available
I actually think this horse could be overpriced. She was made a non runner because of fast ground which tells me she wants cut in the ground. She should improve on her last start when 3rd to Give And Take on ground which was not ideal. Sired by Frankel she could run a huge race at a very nice price.
FLATTERING 28/1 available
Another who could be overpriced at huge odds considering she was a 10 length winner on Heavy ground at the start of the month. Dissapointed on her next start on fast ground but it may well be that soft ground is all she wants.
CONCLUSION
I am happy to take Wild Illusion on at the prices. Not because I don’t like the horse but because she is stepping up by a full 1/2 mile from her previous starts. This combined with the soft ground is going to stretch her stamina massively. She may well get the trip but it is a big step up. They should have gone 1m then 1m 2f and then 1m 4f (todays trip). It is not certain she gets the trip.
Magic Wand has an action suited to faster ground and I am confident FOREVER TOGETHER can improve past her.
Bye Bye Baby may like the ground and has a decent E/W chance.
Perfect Clarity in my opinion needed one more run before this so is best watched.
I Can Fly I just can’t have while Ejtyah and Flattering may be overpriced I can’t see how they will get involved.
That leaves me with two horses in GIVE AND TAKE and FOREVER TOGETHER.
I am going to play the both of them E/W against the field and here are my reasons.
FOREVER TOGETHER looks a horse who is progressing nicely. Nothing has been rushed with her and to me Aiden O’Brien has let her do everything in her own time. I thought her last start was a very good effort and she travelled like the best horse in the race. She came home 2nd that day but if she had a clear run I personally think she would have won the race. This extra distance will be appreciated for this very well bred filly. I don’t know about the ground but I think she would’ve preferred it better but one thing for sure is she will stay every yard and more.With the improvement to come and for a horse who is well balanced, I am sure she will run a huge race.
GIVE AND TAKE has had more runs than any other horse in the race and is looking to follow in Sariskas shoes who won the Musidora and then went on to win this race. She is probably not your typical Oaks winner but I was impressed with her run last time out. She stayed all the way to the line and looked to have plenty left in the tank. This is not the greatest renewal so I am happy to GIVE AND TAKE here. She is progressing nicely and is another who can make the frame at the very least.
FOREVER TOGETHER – 6/1 generally – 0.375 POINTS E/W
GIVE AND TAKE – 10/1 generally – 0.375 POINTS E/W
Good Luck
JPW Racing Tipster
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