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These are the write ups of 2018’s winners so far
15:20 Yarmouth – RIGHT ABOUT NOW 13/2 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
RIGHT ABOUT NOW will have to defy top weight here but there is only 5lb between the first 8 horses in the weights, with 13 runners. Trainer Chris Dwyer is in amazing form with 4 winners from his last 8 runners. Lewis Edmunds takes the ride and he is a jockey I rate highly. He actually teamed up with Chris Dwyer today with a winner at Brighton. They actually have a great partnership and Lewis is Edmunds is 12 winners from 56 rides when teaming up.
Edmunds also as a decent strike rate around Yarmouth with 5 winners from 21 rides and 8 places from 21 rides in the last 365 days. Trainer Chris Dwyer has also had 12 placed horses from 35 runs at Yarmouth so it is a track they target.
Now on to the horse RIGHT ABOUT NOW who loves it around the course. He has run at Yarmouth 8 times and has been a winner on two occasions. He has also been placed 5 times from the 8 starts.
Everything points to a big run and at odds of 13/2 he is a strong bet.
Lingfield Trixie – two out of three won
14:00 Lingfeld – VIVIONN – 9/4
14:30 Lingfield – ROMOLA – 7/2
16:30 Lingfield – RAPIER – 2/1
All 3 horses are trained by Sir Michael Stoute and all 3 horses are ridden by Ryan Moore. What it very interesting about this partnership is the strike rate the pair have at the course together from not very many runners.
Over the last 5 YEARS. Ryan Moore has rode 21 horses for Sir Michael Stoute at Lingfield and has had 10 winners (48% strike rate). Even more impressive is 16 of the 21 rides have been placed (76% strike rate). These figures are over 5 years so the fact he rides 3 in one day tomorrow, tells me they mean business. They are all owned by Cheveley Park Stud so a gamble looks on the cards.
With the odds relatively short I am advising a trixie where you need 2 winners to get a return. Those stats stick out like a sore thumb so I am happy to get involved.
16:15 Galway – ZERO TEN 7/2 – 1 POINT WIN
I respect Emmet Mullins as a trainer and he is a very shrewd operator. I respect him even more when he teams up with his jockey cousin David Mullins. The pair have only teamed up 7 times in the last year and that partnership has produced 4 winners. A huge 57% strike rate. He rides ZERO TEN for Emmet here who is making his debut over hurdles. I am not to bothered with it being his debut over obstacles, under rules as he does have winning Point To Point form, so we know he can jump. ZERO TEN was a good winner in a bumper here 6 weeks ago. What was more impressive was it was his first start for new connections after switching from Shark Hanlon and his first start for over a year. ZERO TEN is bred to jump hurdles/fences so whatever he done in bumpers was a bonus. He also has important course winning form and horses who like Galway, generally keep coming back and run big races. The danger is the Willie Mullins trained Throne’s Game who has been purchased from France. He is having his first start in over a year so ZERO TEN should have the fitness edge. I am very happy with the price and I expect a big run.
13:50 Doncaster – A MOMENTOFMADNESS 25/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W (1/4 ODDS)
A MOMENTOFMADNESS was 3rd in a Group 2 at Chantilly in June and raised to 103 in the handicap. He is now back down to 99 after a couple of below par performances. I do think this race suits a horse who front runs so it will be to the liking of A MOMENTOFMADNESS. William Buick takes the ride and he know this horse very well after winning on him twice this season. He finished 6th in this race last year but I do believe he is a better horse time around. Charles Hills horse are also running very well. E/W.
14:25 Doncaster – SOLDIERS CALL 13/2 – 1 POINT WIN
SOLDIERS CALL is overpriced here at 11/2. He did finish behind Rumbleinthejungle at Goodwood but the winner bumped our selection as they came out of the stalls. I am not saying this was the whole reason he was beat but it is certainly a factor worth thinking about. SOLDIERS CALL still came home in 3rd place and can be forgiven. Now back to his win at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle Stakes which he very easily from the front. That was a proper performance and a sign of a very good horse. SOLDIERS CALL made up for his loss at Goodwood with a very good win at Chantilly 2 weeks ago. He showed some blistering speed that day and it made me think that his run at Goodwood was only a blip. Trainer Archie Watson even mentioned the new 5 1/2 furlongs sprint at the Breeders Cup as his target after winning at Chantilly. If he is to have a chance at the Breeders Cup meeting he has to be winning this race today.
Trainer Archie Watson is in very good form with 7 winners from his last 28 runners and 14 of them have been placed. Daniel Tudhope takes the ride and he gets on very well with the horse after riding him on his last 4 starts, winning 3 of them. 11/2 is a very good price as I make him 10/3 in my market. WIN.
13:50 Doncaster – KHAADEM 6/4 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
I can’t look past KHAADEM here who went straight into my notebook after winning at Newmarket nearly a month ago. He won with such ease and looked a horse who was going places. I actually make him as short as evens fav here so the 6/4 looks a strong bet. Jim Crowley takes the ride for trainer Charles Hills and both are in very good form recently. WIN.
14:25 Doncaster – ARCTIC SOUND 9/2 – 1 POINT WIN
I am happy to forgive ARCTIC SOUND last performance 3 weeks ago at Salisbury as I know he is much better than that showing. On his penultimate start he was a 7 length winner at Beverley on the same ground as today. On his start before he was a winner of a very good race at Sandown and beat Line Of Duty in the process who has since gone on to win a valuable race at Goodwood last week to boost the form. James Doyle takes the ride and he has been in fine form this season. In the last 30 days alone he has rode 25 winners from 85 rides (29% strike rate). Of those 85 rides 42 have been placed so nearly 50% have been thereabouts.
15:00 Doncaster – GLOBAL APPLAUSE 11/4 – 1 POINT WIN
I was impressed with the way GLOBAL APPLAUSE won his last race at Sandown just 10 days ago. The ground was described at Good To Soft that day which he will get again today. He is by a horse called Mayson who’s horses generally like cut in the ground. GLOBAL APPLAUSE is lightly raced this season and this will be only his 4th start of the season. The majority of this field have had very hard seasons which could have taken it’s toll on them. GLOBAL APPLAUSE switched yards from Ed Dunlop to Robert Cowell who does so well with sprinters. He immediately worked his magic and I would be surprised if this horse did not have a say here for his new trainer.
15:55 Ascot – FIRST ELEVEN 4/1 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
FIRST ELEVEN is a group horse running in a handicap here and I am very confident he can win here. His last start was in a Group 3 last time out where he came home midfield but on his previous start he was a very unlucky loser at Royal Ascot when denied a clear run. He is rated 97 by the handicapper but I think he is better than that and against this opposition should have no problem winning this. WIN.
16:30 Brighton – DE VEGAS KID 5/2 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
Not much not to like about DE VEGAS KID here who won easily here today. If they run again in this race they won’t get a penalty. I am taking for granted the horse is ok from today but he didn’t look like he had a hard race. Even so if the horse is not ready to run then the trainer will make him a non runner. I am happy to take the chance at 5/2 as if he do run come tomorrow at race time, I am sure he will go off around 6/4. Poppy Bridgewater rides the course very well and has is 5 from 12 when riding for this trainer at Brighton.
18:35 Wolverhampton – THE THROSTLES 9/2 – 1.5 POINT WIN
Why a race on the all weather? Simply because trainer Kevin Frost is bang in form. When his horse are firing he is the type of trainer you follow. He only has a small yard which is clearly bug free and his current form is 4 winners from his last 9 runners (44.44% strike rate) over the last 14 days. Out of those 9 runners, 6 have been placed (66.67% strike rate).
Trainer form to one side THE THROSTLES loves it around Wolverhampton and has won 3 of his 5 starts at the course. When you combine a course specialist with a trainer bang in form, you should get one outcome which is a very solid run.
13:50 York – LORD GLITTERS 15/8 – 1.5 POINT WIN
LORD GLITTERS has done us no wrong this season with E/W finishes so I am going to let him get his first win of the season on the boards for us. This is a weak race and he will surely be too good for them after his efforts in Group 1 races this season. WIN.
15:00 York – EXPERT EYE 6/4 – 2 POINT WIN
Should be an easy win here for EXPERT EYE. He is a group 1 horse running in a Group 3. Was impressive at Royal Ascot and then 2nd last time time out at Goodwood. 7f is his trip and I would be very surprised if he gets beat here as it is a weak race. WIN.
14:25 Newbury – HAMADA 11/4 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
I absolutely love this horse and he is still improving. HAMADA is unbeaten this year with 3 wins from 3 starts and I can’t wait to see him tomorrow. He is all class and the improvement found when stepped up to 1m 6f last time out was amazing. Charlie Appleby has been patient with this horse and it has paid dividends this year. It will take a good one to beat him here and although this is a step up in class I think he is a Group 1-2 horse. WIN.
16:30 Chelmsford – GOLD FILGREE 3/1 – 1 POINT WIN
Surprised GOLD FILGREE is not favourite here with her previous form at Chelmsford. Her form reads 221 at the course so she clearly likes it around here. She was a winner on her penultimate start at Chester and her form on the whole is very good. She was not far away on her last start in a Class 2 so will appreciate this drop in class. WIN.
20:05 Leopardstown – EZIYRA 2/1 – 1 POINT WIN
EZIYRA won 3 Group 3s last season and was even 3rd to Enable in Irish Oaks last season. She is a very good horse who is easily the best horse in the race in my opinion. The one negative would be that she has been off the course since last September but Dermot Weld should have her fit for this one with it being a Group 3 and plenty of prize money available. Being a filly they are normally at their best in the latter part of the flat season so this could be to her benefit. EZIYRA gets 6lb from favourite Yucatan and should go very close. WIN.
13:50 Goodwood – TOMMY G 22/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
TOMMY G was 2nd in this race last year off a 1lb higher mark and was ridden by David Egan. No disrespect to that jockey be he is no where near as good a jockey as Silvestre De Sousa who rides today. TOMMY G is in better form this year than last year also with two wins. At 22/1 he is a huge price considering he went so close last year and has a better jockey on board this time around.
14:25 Goodwood – SIR CHAUVELIN 12/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
SIR CHAUVELIN was 2nd at Royal Ascot behind Dash Of Spice and has been running well since. 3rd in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle and was only beaten 4 lengths at Newbury last time out over 2m. He travels well through races and is capable of winning a race like this. His last few races have been better than this so this drop in class will be appreciated. E/W.
13:50 Goodwood – MIRAGE DANCER 2/1 – 1 POINT WIN
MIRAGE DANCER will take some beating thats for sure. Loved it here 3 starts back when winning a Listed race. He was given a bad ride at Royal Ascot so we can put a line through that form. He was then just touched off in a Group 2 last time out. He is down in class for this one and I expect him to win as long as the real MIRAGE DANCER turns up. WIN.
14:25 Ascot – CRACK ON CRACK ON 13/2 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
CRACK ON CRACK ON went into my notebook at Royal Ascot when he was sent off fav for the Brittannia Stakes at Royal Ascot. He came home 13th of 30 but I thought he done well to finish where he did after the start he had. He dwelt out of the gates and was then badly hampered soon after. That was his race over straight away and most horses would’ve trailed home in last place after the start he had. He plugged and although could never threaten, I am sure had he got away ok he would have got closer. His first two starts of the season he was an easy winner and his penultimate start at Haydock was his best effort to date. He won by 1 1/2 lengths that day against 15 rivals and if he repeats that effort he will go close here. E/W.
15:10 Chester – POWERALLIED 5/2 – 1 POINT WIN
POWERALLIED is my NAP of the day here. He is drawn in 1 which is the plum draw over 5f. His form at Chester is excellent with 3 runs at the course, all of which have been when he has had a very good draw. Despite not winning this season he has been in good form and his form reads 22423 and he remains on the same mark of 88. I don’t think he will have a better opportunity all season to get his head in front and I am expecting an aggressive ride from the front. WIN.
15:40 Ascot – POET’S WORD 5/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
We tipped POET’S WORD yesterday via our blog area. You can read the blog via the following link www.jpwracingtipster.com/2018/07/26/king-george-vi-and-queen-elizabeth-stakes-2018/
15:50 Lingfield – SEA FOX 2/1 – 1 POINT WIN
I make SEA FOX favourite here and I think he will win comfortably. If we wasn’t on such a bad run this would be a 2 point win but we need to get back on the straight and narrow before thinking about those kind of bets. SEA FOX has had a really good season on the turf which started in May with an excellent 3rd of 27 runners at Ascot in a Class 2 handicap. He finished 1/2 length off Ripp Orf that day who is now rated 94 by the handicapper and it was a very good effort. He then went and finished 3rd of 8 to Aces in a Class 2 and Aces has since gone on to win another race. His last start was again at Newmarket when finishing 3rd. This is a drop down in class and with Adam Kirby on board I fully expect him to get his head in front for the first time this season on the turf. WIN.
19:20 Hamilton – GEORGE BOWEN 5/1 – 1 POINT WIN
GEORGE BOWEN ran a cracker last time out at Royal Ascot in the Wokingham. He came home in 6th place beaten just 2 lengths. He remains on the same handicap mark but Sebastian Woods claims 5lb. GEORGE BOWEN was breathtaking 3 starts ago at York when winning a handicap by a huge 6 lengths. This is actually quite weak race compared to what he has been running in and should go close. WIN.
15:35 Newbury – NATALIES JOY 5/4 – 2 POINT WIN
My NAP of the day and a horse who really should be odds on. She was sent off 5/4 for the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot over 7 furlongs and disappointed but this step back to 6 furlongs and a weaker race will be to her liking. She is a seriously talented horse on her day and I believe Royal Ascot was just an off day. On her debut at Goodwood she was seriously impressive and that is the horse I think we will see tomorrow. WIN.
16:05 Ayr – PIPERS NOTE 2/1 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
I fully expect PIPERS NOTE to win this race. He is a course speciaiist who is now on a handicap mark of 89. That is a tiny mark for a horse of his quality and it is actually his lowest mark since 2013. He has run some good races of late not being beat by much yet has rocketed down the handicap. Will take a good one to beat PIPERS NOTE. WIN.
16:20 Stratford – RED TORNADO 2/1 – 1 POINT WIN
RED TORNADO looks to be on a very workable mark of 126 and despite not winning in 2 years, if he is going to get his head back in front, this is the race for him. He loves fas ground and showed signs he was on his way back last time out at Newton Abbot when 2nd to 134 rated Champagne City. It was a good effort as he had some decent horses in behind him. The strong form of Harry Skelton and Dan Skelton continue and they are 5 winners from 9 starts in the last 2 days alone. Should go close. WIN.
16:45 Newmarket – HAMADA 10/3 – 1 POINT WIN
Feels like I have been waiting forever for HAMADA to run since his win at York back in May. He is two from two this season and has actually only had 5 career starts, winning three of them. HAMADA is a 4 year old so is very lightly raced and I really like how patient Charlie Appleby has been with this horse. HAMADA has a raw talent and still has so much improvement to come. This step up in trip should bring out further as he is bred to stay. WIN.
14:10 Sandown – ROARING LION 10/3 – 1 POINT WIN
ROARING LION first start of the season was in the Craven Stakes when 3rd behind Masar after being sent off 8/13 fav. He was half the horse we had seen from the previous season when finishing 2nd in the Racing Post Trophy that something was surely a miss. He then finished a creditable 5th in the 2000 guineas. He had his first start beyond 1 mile in the York Dante when he won by 4 1/2 lengths in impressive fashion and that was the horse we new from the previous season. He was then stepped up in trip to 1m 4f for the Derby and finished an excellent 3rd. He looked like he didn’t quite get the trip in the Derby and breeding suggests that may have been the case. This drop back down in trip to 1m 2f is going to ideal and another horse who missed Royal Ascot to be tuned to the minute for this race. The only negatives I can find are he has finished behind Masar 3 times from 3 runs (none over todays trip) and finished behind Saxon Warrior twice ( beaten him once but again not met over todays trip).
12:20 Sandown – JUDICIAL 4/1 – 1 POINT WIN
JUDICIAL will get perfect conditions here. He loves fast ground and he loves a fast pace. He will get that fast pace with Sound And Silence in the field thats for sure. His season started at Newmarket when an excellent 2nd to Mabs Cross in a Group 3. He was then sent to Haydock and although he finished 8th of 10 to another of todays runners Muthmir, that showing was better than it looks on paper. He was travelling all over Muthmir that day but the gaps closed for him and JUDICIAL had no where to go. On his last start 3 weeks ago he was an impressive winner at Beverley keeping on strong to the line. The faster the ground the better and I fully expect him to be involved in the finish. WIN.
14:55 Curragh – SO PERFECT 6/4 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
SO PERFECT was a very good 4th at Royal Ascot in the Queen Mary Stakes and on the back of that will be very hard to beat here. He is still improving and I believe this step up in trip ought to bring out the best in him. Ryan Moore takes the ride and I think he should be around the evens mark. 6/4 looks a good bet. WIN.
20:05 Newcastle – SMART CALL 9/4 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
SMART CALL is rated 11lb better than any horse in this race but does not have to give weight away apart from 3 year old weight allowance. He is rated 108 which is far superior to any other horse in the race. He came home 3rd on his last start to Coronet in a Group 2 at York beaten just 2 lengths. I am actually surprised he is not as short as 6/4 to be honest. Trainer by Sir Michael Stoute who’s horses are flying at present. I can’t see him being beat unless one of the 3 years old finds massive improvement. WIN.
15:05 Ascot – Hampton Court Stakes – HUNTING HORN 6/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
Key Victory is favourite here but HUNTING HORN finished in front of him last time out in the French Derby. I see no reason why it won’t be the same outcome as a course like Ascot should play to HUNTING HORN strength with tough uphill finish. Our selection was 6th of 16 in French Derby only beaten 2 lengths and was 3rd in the Chester Vase not beaten far. He is still progressing and a fast run race with a stiff finish is right up his street.
14:30 Ascot – Norfolk Stakes – SHANG SHANG SHANG 9/2 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
I believe this is Wesley Ward best horse that he has brought to Royal Ascot this year. She could’ve gone for the Queen Mary but reading between the lines you are not going to send your best to the Queen Mary and then your 2nd best to take on the boys in the Norfolk Stakes are you. SHANG SHANG SHANG even ran a faster time than Chelsea Cloisters and beat another very good horse in Moonlight Romance easily by 2 lengths at Kenneland. Moonlight Romance went on and won her next race by 6 lengths and is running in the Windsor Castle Stakes on Saturday. The form is top class and with only 10 runners I am confident the horse can do it from the front. She was shorter at the start of the week but is on the drift because Wesley Ward two horses have lost at Royal Ascot. I am expecting a big run.
17:35 Ascot – Jersey Stakes – EXPERT EYE 12/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
No matter which angle I try I can’t get MARMELO beat. This could quite easily have run in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot but instead is happy to run here in the Listed Race. I have no doubt MARMELO is a Group horse and the other will struggle against a horse of his quality here. He was 2nd to the classy Variziabad last time out and only beaten a neck. That horse is 3rd favourite for the Gold Cup next week. MARMELO was also sent of favourite for the Melbourne Cup when he finished a respectable 9th of 23. His last 5 starts have been in either Group 1 or Group 2 and he is sure to come on for his 2nd 3 weeks ago. I think he should be around the 6/4 mark so 9/4 s great value. WIN.
15:00 York – MARMELO 2/1 – 1.5 POINT WIN
No matter which angle I try I can’t get MARMELO beat. This could quite easily have run in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot but instead is happy to run here in the Listed Race. I have no doubt MARMELO is a Group horse and the other will struggle against a horse of his quality here. He was 2nd to the classy Variziabad last time out and only beaten a neck. That horse is 3rd favourite for the Gold Cup next week. MARMELO was also sent of favourite for the Melbourne Cup when he finished a respectable 9th of 23. His last 5 starts have been in either Group 1 or Group 2 and he is sure to come on for his 2nd 3 weeks ago. I think he should be around the 6/4 mark so 9/4 s great value. WIN.
14:25 York – ABOVE THE REST 16/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
The same applies for ABOVE THE REST who is way overpriced at 16/1. He finished 4th in this race last year just behind Salateen. He also likes to be prominent. He carries 10st today so is up 1lb from last year but other than that tiny difference nothing has changed from last year. He comes here a fit horse and has dropped down the handicap from 107 to todays 104. He was the winner of the Bunbury Cup after finishing 4th in this race last year. The Bunbury Cup was his 5th start of the season and today this is his 5th start of the season. He may just need a few runs to get in peak condition. The 16/1 on offer is a great E/W bet.
19:20 Aintree – CAUSE TOUJOURS 7/4 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
We were on CAUSE TOUJOURS on Saturday when he was made a non runner at Stratford. The clearly had this race earmarked for better prize money. He was very good on his sole start over hurdles for new trainer Ian Williams and I expect even more improvement to come from the horse. He is only rated 121 by the handicapper and I am sure he is a better horse than that rating. He is also fitted with headgear for the first time and should only be a positive to help him concentrate that bit better. WIN.
19:20 Windsor – FIRE FIGHTING 9/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
FIRE FIGHTING is not getting any younger but is now on a very workable mark of 94. This is his lowest handicap since 2014 . He is not the horse he used to be but he did show he retained some of his ability with a win on the All Weather just 2 months ago. This is not the best looking race and with Adam Kirby knowing this horse very well, he is overpriced at 9/1. E/W.
15:45 Goodwood – MANCINI 7/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I am surprised MANCINI is as big as 7/1 here. He was on for a treble last time out at Haydock after 2 wins at Lingfield and Chelmsford. He could only finish 4th of 9 that day but he was was sent off 15/8 fav so he was well fancied. It was also in a Class 2 against horses like The Grand Visir, Byron Flyer and Euchen Glen. This is a weaker race today with it being a Class 3. He is on the same handicap mark as his last run and I think a track like Goodwood will be to his liking. E/W.
15:25 Haydock – MUTHMIR 3/1 – 1 POINT WIN
The key to MUTHMIR always has and always will be the ground. The faster the better for MUTHMIR and with the weather hot today and tomorrow he has everything in his advantage. I simply think he is a much better horse than these and he will be very hard to beat. He is rated much higher than all these, yet don’t give any weight away. His last start was a decent 5th behind Battaash at this course in the Group 2 Temple Stakes. This is a listed race today so is way down in grade. 3/1 is actually a big price as I make him a 7/4 chance in this company and on this ground. WIN.
16:00 Haydock – D’BAI 4/1 – 0.5 POINTS WIN
I have left D’BAI in as he has done very well this season over in Dubai and at Windsor on his last start when just beaten by the classy The Tin Man. That was over 6f and I believe he is a better horse over 7f which is todays trip. He is also trained by Charlie Appleby who is having an amazing season. If anything is going to get close to Dutch Connection. It will be this one in my opinion. I may even have a small bet on the forecast. WIN.
14:00 Perth – ROO ROO 5/2 – 1 POINT WIN
ROO ROO has run twice on National Hunt races finishing 4th and 5th on two starts. He was always going to come into his own when he jumped a hurdle and stepped up in trip. I am expecting to see a lot of progression over hurdles and this is a nice starting race. WIN.
16:30 Epsom (Epsom Derby) – MASAR – 16/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I have gone with MASAR because he could slip the field from the front if staying as his breeding suggest he will. He is by New Approach who actually won the Derby so I don’t see why he can’t stay. He was impressive on his first start of the season when winning a Group 3 at Newmarket and then was 3rd to Saxon Warrior, only beaten 2 lengths in the 2000 guineas. If Buick can get his fractions correct he is a seriously good price at 16/1. E/W.
16:30 Epsom (Epsom Oaks) – FOREVER TOGETHER – 6/1 – 0.375 POINTS E/W
Second to Magic Wand in the Cheshire Oaks but had to be switched not once but twice. Magic Wand had first run on her and the ship had sailed before FOREVER TOGETHER could get going. I really think she would’ve gone close had she not been switched twice. Donnacha O’Brien takes the ride and I think this is a positive as he was aboard at Chester. I think this is a positive as he got to know the horse that day and when asked to quicken she took off after her interference. She has to improve again but she is certainly going in the right direction. Will have no problems with the trip but slight ground concerns.
15:50 Nottingham – REPERCUSSION 15/2 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I think potentially Bless Him is the best horse in the race but he is making his seasonal reappearance and he might just need the run. A horse who is coming here a very fit horse is REPURCUSSION who was an excellent 5th on his penultimate start and 5th again his start before behind Addeybb in the Lincoin handicap. In the Lincoln he was travelling really and didn’t have much room 1f out. He still plugged on for 5th place in what was a hot race. His next start was in the Greatwood Spring Cup where again he finished 5th when seeing like the winner at one stage. He flopped on his last start but that was another big field handicap so he is entitled to one bad run out of three in those type of handicaps. His trainer Charlie Fellowes is in good form at the moment and he should run well at a nice price.E/W.
15:45 Goodwood – ASPETAR 4/1 – 1 POINT WIN
I really like the look of ASPETAR here who is trained by Roger Charlton who is a shrewd trainer when it comes to races like this. I thought he he was very good on his sole start at Windsor last month when scoring by nearly 4 lengths. He is up in class here but with a month since his last run, I am sure Roger Charlton has got much more improvement out of him. The step up in trip will also be appreciated whereas others in this race have question marks about getting the trip. WIN.
19:35 Sandown – MAGIC CIRCLE 5/1 – 1 POINT WIN
Weekender is the short priced favourite her but he is having his first start on the turf this year. I am keen to take him on at the prices with two horses.
MAGIC CIRCLE was seriously when winning the Chester Cup 2 weeks ago and looks to have improved massively under new trainer Ian Williams. He won that race by 6 lengths and could yet have more to come. This is another step up in trip but the horse will relish the fast ground and also the fast pace. MAGIC CIRCLE will stay every yard and if close enough coming into the final furlong will be staying on better than anything. WIN.
15:50 Market Rasen – MIDNIGHT MAESTRO 13/2 – 0.75 POIINTS E.W
I have been waiting for MIDNIGHT MAESTRO since he finished 2nd to Rothman on his last start a month ago. He let the winner have first run on him that day otherwise he would have gone close. It was also on bad ground so I expect a better performance on decent ground. He is rated 126 by the handicapper but on his day I think he is a better horse than that. 13/2 is decent value. E/W.
16:15 Naas – SIOUX NATION 13/8 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
I make SIUOX NATION evens favourite so I am happy to bet at 13/8. He was the winner of the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and is by far the best horse in the race especially on the better ground. We have Ryan Moore in the saddle and he will take all the beating. He was 4th on his first run of the season on bad ground. He will come on lots for that run and this is a weak race compared to what he is used to running in. WIN.
15:40 Newbury – RHODODENDRON 10/3 – 1 POINT WIN
It is very interesting that they are dropping RHODODENDRON back to 1 mile after running most of his races over 1m 2f last season. He does have lots of speed though and he showed this when 2nd in last years 2000 guineas. He was also the winner of the Group 1 Prix De L’opera Longines at last years Arc meeting. He is all class and one thing for certain is he will be running on at the end. The only question I have is if the ship would’ve sailed or not by the time he picks up, against other horses who have more natural speed. I am sure he will set out to make this a very strong pace which will play to his advantage. WIN.
17:35 Newmarket – MOVE IN TIME 4/1 – 1 POINT WIN
MOVE IN TIME has returned this season a new horse and will go very close to winning this race. He has had two runs this season finishing 3rd of 14 at Newcastle and then 2nd of 9 at this course a month ago in a Class 3. This is a Class 4 so he is down in close for just a length beating . MOVE IN TIME is now rated 83 by the handicapper but just 2 years ago was rated 105. He has come down the handicap over 20lbs in that time and I am quietly confident he will get his head in front for the first time since 2015. WIN.
16:05 York – THUNDERING BLUE 9/2 – 1 POINT WIN
THUNDERING BLUE is a progressive 5 year old who still has plenty of improvement left in him. He was an impressive winner of two races at Sandown and Newmarket last season. These wins were followed up with a very respectable 7th of 34 in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket. THUNDERING BLUE reappeared at Epsom last month and finished 5th of 10. I must say he looked in need of the run in the paddock from what I seen and went down as a paddock horse with improvement on his next start. He still run a decent race and will come on massively for that run. I think a course like York will be right up his street, especially with the long straight. WIN.
Unfortunately I was not able to provide write ups for the tips on this day as I was admitted to hospital with a severe slipped disc and to possibly await surgery. We did have winners though…
14:20 York – EL ASTRONATE 10/1 – 0.5 PTS E/W
15:30 York – ROARING LION 5/2 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
14:20 York – HAMADA 9/4 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
HAMADA looks to be very well handicapped on a mark of 92. He had his first start for 572 days at Wolverhampton at the end of April and he won with quite a bit in hand. It was a good performance with the length of time he had off the track and although this is a step up in class, HAMADA should improve massively for that run. I believe he is well handicapped on his 2 year old form as if he wasn’t off the track for 572 days, I am pretty sure he would’ve improved into a low 100 horse as a 3 year old. As a 2 year old he finished 2nd to Atty Persse off level weights and that horse is now rated 101. On his penultimate start which was back in October 2016 he was stepped up in trip to 1m 2f and absolutely bolted up by 6 lengths. That was the last we seen of HAMADA until the 28th April 2018. He was stepped up to 1m 4f (todays trip) and as mentioned above, it was a good performance and the step up in trip was clearly appreciated. Despite being a 4 year old he has only had 4 starts so I am pretty sure he has so much more improvement to come. WIN.
14:05 York – GIVE AND TAKE 4/1 – 1 POINT WIN
I have gone through this field and I am happy to take on favourite Highgraden simply because his breeding tells me he wants further and I believe he wants softer ground. The same applies with Ejyah who was made a non runner because the ground was to fast just 3 days ago.
That left me with 5 horses and Expensive Liaison is not good enough, Lubinka only won a Class 6 at Lingfield last time out so will have to improve massively on that performance.
It was out of Ceilidhs Dream and GIVE AND TAKE and I sided with the latter on his recent perfromance at Sandown in what looked a very good race. She finished 2nd to Crystal Hope over todays trip and had todays favourite back in 3rd a further length back. GIVE AND TAKE travelled really well through the race and if she travelled like that in softish ground, she should travel even smoother on faster ground. On that form alone she has the beating off Highgarden. Her form as 2 year old is also very good. She finished 2nd to Wild Illusion over 1 mile and that horse went on to win a Group 1. I personally think she should be fighting for favouritism and will run a huge race. WIN.
13:50 Newmarket – GIFTED MASTER – 16/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I have put up GIFTED MASTER as I think he could have the run of the race drawn from in 12. He is a front runner and from a draw in 12 he should be able to bag the rail which will be a big advantage. He has his usual blinkers on and comes here fit after a run on the All Weather just over a month ago. This is actually his first handicap run which shows his class considering he has had 22 runs. 90% of his runs have been in Group 1s, 2s and 3s so this is a step down in class. He has top weight to carry which is not going to be easy but with a favoured draw and a recent run under his belt he may well get away with it. GIFTED MASTER was a Class 1 winner last August and has run some big races in Group company in the past. Will outrun his huge odds of 16/1 thats for sure and I am willing to take a chance despite the weight he has to carry. E/W.
15:35 Newmarket – SAXON WARRIOR 5/1 – 1 POINTS WIN
SAXON WARRIOR also comes here unbeaten and was the winner of the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster back in October. He is a very good horse and again is beautifully bred. His Dam ‘Maybe’ finished 3rd in the 1000 guineas and his sire is the great ‘Deep Impact’. My racing brain tells with this horse is he wants further than 1 mile and is more a Derby horse and a St Leger horse as his sire Deep Impact was at his best between 1m 4f and 2m. Now looking through the field and it being his first start of the season he could well get away with it over 1 mile. It is not the strongest renewal and this horse is all class. He travelled very well in the Racing Post Trophy and one thing for sure is if this race ends up in a battle, SAXON WARRIOR will be staying on better than anything. At the prices I would certainly want to be on SAXON WARRIOR over stablemate Gustav Klimt.
I am happy to go in double handed with SAXON WARRIOR as although I think he wants further, he could get away with it here against a mediocre field for a Guineas. He won the Racing Post Trophy like a very good thing last season and in my opinion deserves to be shorter in the market. He will be heading to the derby after this but in the meantime he has every chance of winning this race.
15:45 Ascot – INVINCIBLE ARMY 7/4 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN
Quite confident with INVINCIBLE ARMY as I believe he is head and shoulders above these. His last run last season was when 2nd to James Garfield and that has boosted the form last week when winning at Newbury. His form is easily the best in the field from last season which included a win in the Group 3 Serenia Stakes at Kempton. He was also runner up in 3 Group 2s. I think INVINCIBLE ARMY will travel smoothly through the race and class will tell. I am pretty sure he would’ve trained on as a 3 year old as at times he looked green as a 2 year old which tells me he will improve. He is short at 7/4 but in my book I make him an 11/8 chance. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off that price or shorter to be honest. WIN.
16:15 Salisbury – MOABIT 3/1 – 1 POINT WIN
We know MOABIT will come here a fit horse as he has been running over hurdles. The ground is described at Heavy and that will also be in his favour massively. It is worht pointing out that this horse has been to Salisbury twice and was a winner both times. The ground is going to catch a few of these out especially on their seasonal reappearance and I am confident MOABIT can take full adavantage of this. WIN.
16:20 Punchestown – KEMBOY 6/1 – 0.75 POINTS E/W
KEMBOY has to carry top weight but not much splits the main contenders in this race. KEMBOY looked really good on his last start when winning at Limerick 2 weeks ago. He easily brushed aside Tombstone that by 8 lengths. On his penultimate start KEMBOY fell in the Irish National and was a very good 4th in the JLT Chase at thee Cheltenham Festival back in March. His form this season reads 214F1, Paul Townend has chosen this horse out of all of Willie Mullins horses and he should be bang there. I can’t see how he is out of the frame as long as his jumping holds up. E/W.
18:40 Punchestown – CAID DU BERALIS 6/1 – 0.75 POINTS E/W
I thought CAID DU BERLAIS he put in a terrific performance at Cheltenham to finish 5th in th Foxhunters at the Cheltenham Festival. We have William Buick on board and he is a jockey I rate. our selection won 3 races before going to Cheltenham and is still relatively young at 9 when it comes to hunter chasing. He was rated as high as 151 just a few season back and even won the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in 2014. He is sure to be involved and looks like he has been targeted for this race since Cheltenham.
17:30 Punchestown – FAUGHEEN 10/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
Is FAUGHEEN the same horse he used to be? No he is clearly not after his run in the Champion Hurdle. Can he win this race? Who knows what this 3 miles will do to him. He actually looked more like a stayer when winning the Neptune Novice Hurdle as a novice and he won’t need to use the finishing kick you have to use to win over 2 miles. We have seen over the years how 3 miles rejuvenates a horse and Jezki, Solwhit and Hurricane Fly all came back to win over 3 miles. I am not standing here saying he is going to win the race but I am happy to take the chance at a huge price of 10/1. E/W.
16:55 Punchestown – NEXT DESTINATION 15/8 – 1 POINT WIN
I simply can’t see past NEXT DESTINATION in this who has been crying out for 3 miles all season. In my own tissue I have him at 15/8 so we have no value we match the bookies evenly. Even so I am happy to get involved on even playing field with the bookies as in my opinion he will be a proper horse over 3 miles. His last run was at Cheltenham in the Neptune where he came home 3rd to Samcro and Black Op. Samcro is Samcro and Black Op boosted the form at Aintree. NEXT DESTINATION hit a flat spot in that race before staying on all the way up the hill the grab 3rd. The trip was over 2m 5f so this shows how much he is crying out fro 3 miles if he finished lke he did, on an undualting course like Cheltenham. That was actually his only defest of the season as he won 3 race on the bounce previously, including the Grade 1 Lawlor Of Naas Novice Hurdle. This is a confident bet as I don’t see much in the field to trouble him. WIN.
13:45 Ayr – THEINVAL 5/1 – 1 POINT WIN
Not sure if he will run after today but if he do I am sure he has a big chance. He didn’t get involved in the finish so didn’t use up much energy in the finish. He may well be a non runner but it is worth taking the chance at the price.
Below was what we sent out today:
I just can’t see past THEINVAL here. He finished 2nd in this race last year to the classy Cloudy Dream and is a huge 7lb lower this time around. It is not as if the horse in not in form either after finsihing 4th at the Cheltenham Festival and 2nd at Aintree. He has taken the same route to this race as he did last year and does not have a horse like Cloudy Dream in his way this time around. If he repeats his 2 previous runs he wins this race quite comfortably. WIN.
16:40 Ayr – MOON RACER 8/1 – 0.5 POINTS E/W
This is the last chance I am giving to MOON RACER. I really rate the horse but he has not delivered what he is capbale of. I still think he has run respectively this season in bad ground and the return to better ground should bring out improvement. He is now down the handicap to a mark of 138 and he surely must go close off that mark. He is a better horse on better ground as he showed when winning th Champion Bumper back in 2015. He had wind surgery back in October and has had 2 runs in terrible ground since. He is a quick horse once he gets going but he has not been allowed to use that on bad ground. He will have his chance to show his true class tomorrow and I am expecting a big run. E/W.
15:00 Newmarket – BRANDO 3/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
BRANDO is the obvious choice here having won the race last year and is a proven Group 1 horse. The favourite Le Brivido has not been seen since Royal Ascot and has still got to prove he could beat a group 1 horse in BRANDO. It is possible but I would rather go with what it is right in front of me in a race like this. BRANDO is a smooth travelling horse who has actually just had a wind operation. That may well have improved him further. Sure to be involved with thsi field being run off level weights. He was sent off evens last year yet is 3/1 this year. Thank you very much. WIN.
14:05 Cheltenham – DAME DE COMPAGNIE 2/1 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN
DAME DE COMPAGNIE should be very hard to beat here. She is a smooth travelling horse who has lots of gears. She has not been able to use those gears this season in soft ground so the return to good ground is going to bring the very best out of her. Her main danger in the betting is Dame Rose but our selection gets 5lb from her. Nicky Henderson thinks alot of this horse and she was even entered in the Mares Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival but made a non runner, presumably because of the soft ground. DAME DE COMPAGNIE made a winning start in this country on good ground which comes to me she is all about the better ground. I would be surprised if she was beat put it that way. WIN.
14:25 Newmarket – PORTH SWTAN – 9/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
This is a thirteen runner maiden where 5 of the runners are making their debut. I wouldn’t want to be touching any of them 5 so that narrows it down to 8 runners.
Of the 8 runners I can only see 5 with any sort of chance so we have now narrowed it down to a 5 runner race.
With this being a maiden and 99% having their first start of the season, I like to go for experience in this race. By experience I don’t just mean number of runs but also any form at the course. The rowley mile at Newmarket is not everyones cup of tea with the dip mid race, and it can catch horses out.
No other horse in the race matches that description better than the Charles Hills trainer PORT SWTAN who has lots of experience with 6 runs last year. Although he failed to win he did finish 2nd 4 times and was very unlucky not to have won a race yet.
PORT SWTAN also has two nice pieces of form on this course back in October and November, finsihing 2nd on both starts. It proves he handles the course and more so the dip. When you combine the amount of runs he has had with experience at the course you have a cracking bet at 6/1 with Paddy Power.
Furthmore trainer Charles Hills has had 4 winners from his last 6 runners at odds of 2/9, 20/1, 11/4 and 5/1. His horses are flying at the moment and PORT SWTAN must have an excellent chance. WIN.
15:35 Newmarket – PURSER 5/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
The short price favourite here is Symbolization who looked good last time out but this is better company. At the prices I am happy to take him on with PURSER who will come here a fit horse after running 18 days ago at Newcastle on the All Weather. He chased home Gronkowski that day in 4th place and the winner is highly regarded and will be running in the Kentucky Derby. It was a fair effort and PURSER was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths. He ran in two Group 3s last season finishing 3rd and 4th behind another two very good horses in Ghaiyyath and Masar, one of which was at this course on the rowley mile which means he handles the course. Does give the favourite 3lb but comes here match fit. Overpriced at 5/2 I thought he would be close to favourite. WIN.
16:20 Windsor – MOBSTA 11/8 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN
We were on MOBSTA last time out when he came home 4th in a competitive handicap. He went straight into my notebook that day as he was a very unlucky loser.as he was badly hampered inside the final furlong. He was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths despite being hampered and would’ve surely gone close to winning if it didn’t happen. He was subject to a massive gamble day and was sent off 5/2. This race is much weaker and MOBSTA runs off the same handicap mark. He is short at 11/8 but I really can’t see how he loses if he puts the same perofrmance in. He absolutely loves soft ground and was a horse who was 106 this time last year. WIN.
14:25 Aintree – Mersey Novices Hurdle – BLACK OP 9/4 generally – 2 POINT WIN
The market says it is a 2 horse race and I have to agree with them but I am happy to side with BLACK OP over On The Blind Side who’s only advantage is he comes here fresh after missing Cheltenham. I am sticking with BLACK OP though as he got within 2 lengths of the absolute superstar Samcro and I don’t think OTBS could do that. I also believe OTBS could hit a flat spot and a horse like BLACK OP will take advantage of that. BLACK was 2nd to Santini at Cheltenham in January and then 2nd to Samcro at the Cheltenham. Santini boosted that form today also. He deserves a win and the ground will be no problem having run on it the last twice. A track like Aintree should suit him. WIN.
13:45 Aintree – Gaskells Handicap Hurdle – MR BIG SHOT 10/1 generally (6 PLACES) – 0.5 POINTS E/W
We were on MR BIG SHOT at Cheltenham and I thought he ran a fair race to finish 10th of 23 on his first start for 345 days. He is sure to come on massively for that run off the same handicap mark. He is up in trip which is quite intriguing and just going by his breeding, I am sure he will relish this test. He is by Flemensfirth who’s horses normally absolutely relish testing conditions. I know the yard think an awful lot about the horse and after having a nice blow at Cheltenham should be spot on for this. E/W.
16:40 Aintree – Doom Bar Sefton Novices Hurdle – SANTINI 2/1 generally – 2 POINT WIN
I believe Aintree is the perfect course for SANTINI. He has only had 3 starts for Nicky Henderson and is still in-experienced. The talent this horse has is unbelievable and he has so much more to come. He won his first two starts of the season and then finished 3rd in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival on terrible ground. He came from a mile back in that race to stay on for 3rd and it was a fair run. You will see the best of this horse next year when he jumps fences but in the meantime he should win this. This is a weaker race than the Albert Bartlett and I will be very surprised if he is beat. WIN./p>
16:05 Aintree – Topham Handicap Chase – ULTRAGOLD 20/1 (6 PLACES) – 0.375 POINTS E/W
First up we have ULTRAGOLD who won this race last year. He is 5lb higher in the weights this year but has since come back in December to finish 2nd in the Sefton Handicap Chase over these fences, on the same mark as today. He finished 2nd to Gas Line Boy who has a great chance in the National itself so it is top class form. Harry Cobden takes the ride again and ULTRAGOLD comes alive over these fences and I would much rather have a horse you know jumps these fences at 20/1, than trying to find a well handicapped horse. That is 20/1 for a horse who won the race last year and easily beat today’s favourite O O Seven that day. Why there is such a price difference I could’nt tell you but I am over the moon with the price. E/W.
14:50 Aintree – Betway Mildmay Novices Hurdle – TERREFORT 7/2 generally – 2 POINT WIN
Ever since TERREFORT made his british debut when winning at Huntingdon, I thought he was crying out for 3 miles particularly on a flat track like Aintree. He now runs over 3 miles for the first time and you have to take the hint from Nicky Henderson as he could’ve easily run in today’s Manifesto Novice Chase over the shorter trip and by the way the race was run, would probably have won. TERREFORT won his first two starts of the season and then put in an excellent effort to finish 2nd to Shattered Love in the JLT Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, giving away 7lb. I think you will now see a much better horse over 3 miles (not that he done anything wrong over 2m 4f). Only a 5 year old so has the world at his feet. WIN.
14:50 Aintree – Betway Bowl Chase – BRISTOL DE MAI 2/1 (WITHOUT MIGHT BITE) – 1.5 POINTS WIN
The first question was do I want to take on Might Bite with the poor record favourites have in this race. The answer was no as the opposition is quite poor and he should win this race doing cartwheels.
Now take Might Bite out of the race and bet in the market, without Might Bite then yes I do want get involved with BRISTOL DE MAI.
The ground will be soft enough for BRISTOL DE MAI and he comes here a fresh horse after missing Cheltenham for this race. His season got off to a great start winning the Charlie Hall Chase and then the Betfair Chase at Haydock. He was then sent Kempton for the King George where he went off 3/1 2nd fav behind Might Bite. Looking back he was never going to enjoy going right handed as all his form was on left handed tracks. His last run was at Cheltenham in the Cotswold Chase at the end of January. He came home 3rd that day behind another of today’s runners Definitly Red.
I was very surprised he was beat that day but looking through his form he was sent for a wind operation just 2 days after the Cotswold Chase. Daryl Jacob clearly reported a breathing problem so looking back, to finish 10 lengths off the winner in Grade 2, while having breathing issues is not a bad run. BRISTOL DE MAI has not been seen since and been kept fresh for this very race.
I have gone back through his form to see what it was like coming back from a 50 day break or more and his form reads 112211. The best time to catch him is clearly when fresh and he comes here on the back of a 75 day break.
BRISTOL DE MAI is available at 2/1 (without Might Bite) and that is a cracking bet in my eyes.
I don’t think Clan Des Obeaux, Double Shuffle, Sizing Codelco or Sub Lieutenant are good enough. Definitly Red and Tea For Two come here on the back of a hard race in the Gold Cup, as does Might Bite but he is in a class of his own.
Even if BRISTOL DE MAI wins the race we still make a profit and if he finishes 2nd to Might Bite, again we make a profit.
14:05 Kempton – A MOMENTOFMADNESS – 11/4 generally – 1 POINT WIN
It is hard to ignore A MOMENTOFMADNESS here under a Buick ride from Stall 3. He is a horse who likes to be prominent so as long as he can break well he will be tough to beat. He had his first start of the season 2 weeks ago at Lingfield getting beat by another of todays runners Tomily. Today A MOMENTOFMADNESS is 5lb better off at the weights and given the fact he didn’t break well in that race and still only lost by under a length, tells me with a decent start he should easily reverse that form. He should also come on loads from his first start of the season and a track like Kempton should be more to his liking so he can use his speed. He has been to the course twice and is unbeaten. Personally if I see him lead I am confident he won’t be caught. WIN.
14:35 Fontwell – WIZARDS BRIDGE 5/2 generally – 1.5 POINTS WIN
Five runner race and Colin Tizzard has 2 of the runners. Harry Cobden woud’ve had the pick of both horses and he has sided with WIZARDS BRIDGE. It is his form at Fontwell which really stands and reads 311PU1. Three wins from 5 starts so he is clearly a course specialist. He was a winner last time out at Chepstow over a trip too short so this step up in trip will be appreciated. He was a winner over 3m 2f here in October which is the same trip as today. The field are closely matched in the handicap but for me WIZARDS BRIDGE gets the vote and quite a confident vote. WIN.
14:45 Fairyhouse – GETABIRD 6/4 Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
We were on GETABIRD at the Cheltenham Festival where he flopped. I said in my review afterwards that he jumped right all the way around and the only time you would ever see me betting this horse again was when he was going right handed. I still think he is a serious horse but it is paramount that he goes right handed. On his penultimate start he beat Menghli Khan by an easy 9 lengths in the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown. The runner up went and finished 3rd in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival showing that GETABIRD was clearly affected by going left handed. When going right handed GETABIRD is unbeaten and that includes a win here back in 2016 when winning a bumper by 12 lengths. I am fairly confident he will win and would normally go 2 points win but due to a bad performance at Cheltneham I have reluctantly kept it to 1 point win.
15:05 Meydan – JUNGLE CAT 5/1 available – 1 POINT E/W (BET 365 PAYING 1/4 ODDS)
Surely the worst that could happen for JUNGLE CAT is he finishes in the first 3 and we get our money back. All the rage is about Blue Point and he is a very good horse but I just can’t get away from the fact JUNGLE CAT lowered the course record last time out and is in the form of his life. He beat Ertijaal on his last start who beat Blue Point earlier in the season. If Blue Point is going to win this he has to break the course record as JUNGLE CAT won like he had more to come last time out. I am very happy with the 5/1 available as I make him an 11/4 chance.
15:55 Towcester – SKIPPING ON 11/4 with Paddy Power – 1 POINT WIN
SKIPPING ON will win this race if he can get his jumping together. It is the right race for him and with Patrick Cowley claiming 5lb, the horse will be carrying less than 10st. Despite his jumping being a bit sketchy he has still managed to win 2 races, and looked likely to win another bar a fall 2 fences out. SKIPPING ON was a winner at Towcester 2 months ago and then looked to be the winner at the same course on his next start had he not fell. You are looking at a horse who would be coming into the race with a 100% record at the course so he clearly likes it around here. SKIPPING ON was a winner last time out at Southwell doing most of his good work in the latter part of the race. He is getting up to 2 stone off some off these and ought to go close with a clear round. WIN.
5:30 Grand Annual Chase LE PREZIAN 14/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
LE PREZIAN was sent off 7/2 favourite for this race last season yet is available at 14/1 this year which makes no sense. Yes he didn’t feature last year but I think he is a better horse this year with much more experience. He has been in decent form this season which include a 3rd in the Bet Victor Gold Cup. He comes here bigger and stronger this year on a mark of 150 and should not be 14/1. E/W.
5:30 Cheltenham – MISSED APPROACH 12/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
3 Mile 2 Furlongs and it is going to rain overnight which means the ground will be heavy and probably the worst ground we have had since day one. I haven’t mentioned the ground above although I have made sure all horse go it, none of the races will be as gruesome as this.
I reckon you will see 5-8 finishers in this race with a lot being pulled up.
The two horses in this race who will absolutely love the ground are FINAL NUDGE and MISSED APPROACH. At the same you need horse int his race who stays 4 miles never mind 3m 2f and both horses do exactly that. MISED APPROACH finished 2nd in last year 4 mile race and needs testing ground, while FINAL NUDGE finished 3rd in the Welsh National over further.
I could go on and on about both horses but no need to really. Both stay forever both love the ground and both are well treated in the handicap. E/W.
4:50 Cheltenham – CAP SOLEIL 11/2 WITHOUT LAURINA – 1 POINT WIN
Do I think Laurina wins this race. Yes I do but what a price for CAP SOLEIL to finish 2nd at 11/2. Feral O’Brien absolutely loves this horse and just looking through the field she is more than capable of beating the rest fo these. She has only lost one race in her career and has one win to here name from one start at Cheltenham. I think the track will suit as she looks like she wants undulations. Fairly confident she will be involved. WIN.
2:50 Cheltenham – BLEU BERRY 28/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
Next up is BLEU BERRY who will be ridden by Paul Townend another master in these handicaps. You only have to go back to his ride last year on Arctic Fire to see how good he is at decision making and then in 2015 when Wicklow Brave won the County Hurdle. Two fantastic rides I am sure the horses may have lost the race had other jockeys been on board. BLEU BERRY ran up three consecutive wins last year including a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse. He was then sent to the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival finishing 5th the likes of Bacardys, Finians Oscar, Death Duty and Let’s Dance. That is four high class horses so Willie Mullins obviously thinks this horse is talented. I think he could turn out to be better than his handicap mark of 142 and he has only been seen once this season when finishing down the field in a handicap at Leopardstown when travelling well before blowing up. He needed that run and the cobwebs will be blown off and I expect a big run here. Willie Mullins is a master at getting horses spot on for one race and again I think this has been the plan for sometime. Massive value at the prices. E/W.
2:10 Cheltenham – PRESENTING PERCY 11/4 generally – 2 POINTS WIN
That leaves us with PRESENTING PERCY who was a winner of the Petemps Hurdle last season. He clearly like it around Cheltenham and is the perfect horse to come from off the pace. He will be held up by Davey Russell and make his move after the 3rd last fence to take closer order. PRESENTING PERCY stays forever and won the a handicap chase carrying top weight 2 starts back, over 3m 5f. This is the type of horse you are going to need to win this race. A hardened horse who jumps, stays and is happy to get in a battle. Come the bottom of the hill he will have his ears pricked still motoring up it instead of crying enough. Patrick Kelly is a magician at getting them ready for 1 day only and that will be the case with PRESENTING PERCY. You could argue that he is good enough to run in a Gold Cup considering he was only beaten by 1 length against the now gold 3rd favourite Our Duke. To get within a length of that horse and do it as a novice says a lot about the battle hardened horse. PRESENTING PERCY is a typical future Gold Cup horse and has all the right attributes to win this race and win it comfortably. I actually make him a 7/4 chance now I have gone into a bit more detail.
4:50 Cheltenham – RATHVINDEN 7/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I couldn’t leave RATHVINDEN out as I always kept coming back to him. Patrick Mullins takes the ride and he is one of the best jockeys in the race. He does have a slight question mark over whether he will stay the trip but I am willing to take a chance on the basis he is probably one of the more naturally talented horses in the race. He won 2 races at the start of the season by a combined total of 38 lengths and then chased home Death Duty in a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse only beaten by 3 lengths. He was brought down on his next start in another Grade 1 at Leopardstown, when still holding every chance. His latest start was in the Grade 1 Flogas Novice Chase where he was simply outclassed. In total he has run in three Grade 1 races so Willie Mullins obviously holds him in high regard. It is also worth point out that back at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival he chased home Faugheen in 3rd place so he has showed a liking to Cheltenham in the past. The ground will also be appreciated. As listed above the distance is a slight concern but if he can get into a nice rhythm and get some cover he certainly has the ability. The question will be what he finds up the hill. E/W.
2:40 Wincanton – MOABIT 9/4 Ladbrokes – 1.5 POINTS WIN
That leaves MOABIT who in my book make the 13/8 favourite. He has gone up the handicap after his impressive win last time out, to a mark of 131. This is not ideal but he has won off 133 in the best and it was not so long ago that he looked a very good horse. He is only a 6 year old and looked to have turned a corner last time out when winning at Chepstow 2 weeks ago. Bryony Frost takes the ride again and she is just magic in the saddle and worth every bit of the 3lb claim she gets. She thinks logically of how to ride a horse and is one very intelligent. She has only ridden this horse once when winning last time and she often strikes up decent partnerships with horses, which again leads me to believe he can improve under her guidance. Trainer Paul Nicholls is obviously keen to get another run as well as it was less than 2 weeks since he won at Chepstow. Despite carrying top weight I think MOABAIT is going to be a very hard horse to beat tomorrow. WIN.
15:40 Fontwell – DICOSIMO 11/1 Paddy Power – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I will start with DICOSIMO who used to be trained by Willie Mullins but changed to Warren Greatrex in November for owners Jill and Robin Eynon (same owners as Cole Harden). DICOSIMO has had 2 runs for his new trainer, one of which was a Grade 2 at Ascot and was way out of his depth. The other in a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle at Sandown. He was pulled up on his last start but judging by the Wind Operation just 11 days later he clearly had breathing issues. Now he has had the wind operation and 2 1/2 months to recover his handicap mark of 132 looks very winnable off. This is a horse who was rated 150 just a couple of seasons ago and has come down the handicap by 18lb. The jockey booking of Richard Johnson also looks very interesting. This is not the best handicap race and although he has to carry top weight, catching him first time up since his wind op, could be the answer. 11/1 is a big price taking everything into consideration. E/W.
15:50 Southwell – GOOD TRADITION 4/1 with Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
Hammersly Lake is the favourite here and over jumps he would easily win this but on the Fibresand it is a different ball game. Hammersly Lake is what you call a proper National Hunt Horse so although the likeliest winner, he may be worth taking on at odds of 4/6. The horse to take him on with is GOOD TRADITION who used to be trained by Dermot Weld on the flat horse who is now trained by Donald McCain. He has had 10 starts over hurdles for his latest trainer but the form I am focusing on is his form on the flat when trained by Dermot Weld. He has the highest mark in the field on the flat and if this was a handicap he would have to give weight away to the whole field. In his prime on the flat he was rated 104 and the fact he runs off level weights and has experience on the flat tells me he is worth the bet at 4/1. Harry Stock is also on board and he claims a valuable 7lb which basically makes him bottom weight. GOOD TRADITION is entitled to be a bit shorter and the back of the few things mentioned above. WIN.
15:30 Warwick – COBRA DE MAI 4/1 Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
COBRA DE MAI is an interesting runner here. He rattled up 3 wins from his first 4 starts over fences between 1st May and 3rd of October, quickly going up the handicap. On his next 2 starts he run at Cheltenham finishing 5th behind Foxtail Hill and then 4th behind Benatar at Ascot. That horse is now rated 149 after beating the highly regarded Finian’s Oscar so the form looks solid. COBRA DE MAI has not been seen since but on the 13th November went for a wind operation. I imagine he has missed the winter because he needs better ground and as described above, the ground is described as good to soft with no rain forecast. Considering this horse started his season back in May I am sure the rest over the winter was appreciated and I expect the wind operation will have a positive affect. If he was getting beat by only 7 lengths to a horse like Benatar, with wind issues, imagine what he could be like if it is sorted? He is now rated 133 which is very winnable off. He won off 134 just 2 starts back so could be very well treated. WIN.
16:05 Huntingdon – RENE’S GIRL 5/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
When I opened up the betting I was expecting RENE’S GIRL to be around the 7/4 mark so I was very happy to see the 5/2 available. I am pretty sure she will go off a lot shorter tomorrow. Her main dangers for me are Got Away who could improve but was given the run of the race last time out and won’t be allowed to lead here, as both RENES GIRL and Desert Queen like to front run. The other danger is Desert Queen but she always seems to gas out at the end of her races and cries wolf. I would also want at least 5/1 if I was to get involved with Desert Queen. With RENES GIRL I have been visual impressed with 2 of her 3 starts this season. She has won her 2 races on bridle and the one that she did lose was because it was too short a trip. A trainer error rather than the horses fault. RENE’S GIRL is also a very good jumper and I think Huntingdon will suit a lot. I noticed she has jumped slightly right on her last 3 starts, all of which on left handed tracks. Huntingdon is a right handed track which will only enhance her chances and make sure she jumps true and straight. WIN.
16:15 Meydan – FOLKSWOOD 5/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
As good as the favourite Leshlaa was here last time out he didn’t run against anything as good as FOLKSWOOD who I rate very highly. I think the 11/4 available is a cracking bet. FOLKSWOOD form at Meydan last season read 212 so we know he likes the course. Over the autumn he was also in great form with a win in Australia and chasing home the exceptional Winx in 3rd place, before finishing 5th of 12 (beaten 2 lengths) at Flemington Park in the Group 1 Emirates Stakes. He was even sent off favourite for that Group 1 last time out so is down in class with this being a Group 3. FOLKSWOOD is also drawn in 1 and the horse likes to be prominent which will help him to get a decent position. William Buick is on board and he rides Meydan as good as anyone. May be a strip fitter for the run but I make him a 9/4 chance which means we are slightly ahead of the traders. WIN.
15:35 Ascot – WAITING PATIENTLY 5/2 with Paddy Power – 2 POINT WIN
I rate WAITING PATIENTLY very highly and what a fitting tribute it would be if he could win this race for trainer Malcolm Jefferson who sadly passed away, and whose funeral was today. His wife Ruth Jefferson now trains the horse (and Mount Mews) and I believe it is written that this horse wins this race. He is unbeaten in 5 starts over fences and won a listed race at Kempton last time out. He is a very good jumper and has a high cruising speed. The ground will be absolutely perfect and I also think Ascot will play to his strengths. We will see tomorrow but I genuinely believe this horse is special when he gets cut in the ground. WIN.
14:25 Sandown – MIDNIGHT TUNE 4/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
MIDNIGHT TUNE is a solid bet here. She has the best form in the race after defeating Ron’s Dream 2 starts back in a handicap. She ran in a Grade 2 last time and although she was convincingly beaten by La Bague Au Roi I think she is better than that showing. MIDNIGHT TUNE should go very close. WIN.
15:00 Sandown – RATHLIN ROSE 9/4 generally – 1 POINT WIN
RATHLIN ROSE won this race last year under the same jockey Guy Disney so both know how to win around here. He actually comes into the race is decent form after finishing a respectable 6th in the Welsh National. The fact both horse and jockey know what to expect will pay dividends in my opinion. WIN.
14:25 Kelso – CYRUS DARIUS 3/1 with Coral – 1 POINT WIN
CYRUS DARIUS won this race last season off a handicap mark of 145. He comes here rated 142 this season so must have a huge chance based on that alone. This will be his fist start hurdles this season and judging by his last efforts over fences, the smaller obstacles will be appreciated. He is a very classy horse on his day and even run in last years Champion Hurdle. Think he should be around the 9/4 mark so I am happy with the 3/1 available. WIN.
14:45 Leicester – COLIN’S BROTHER 3/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
I really fancy COLIN’S BROTHER here especially with Jamie Bargary claiming 3lb. That means he carries under 11st and with the condition quite testing I expect COLIN’S BROTHER to get home better than all of these. He done all his best work when winning at Ludlow just before Christmas and although he hasn’t been seen for a couple of months, I have noticed he has had a number of entries so we know he is fit. I still think he has more improvement to come. WIN.
15:00 Sandown – TOPOFTHEGAME 11/2 with Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
I think this horse will improve massively for the step up in trip. He finished off very strongly on his last start in a hot handicap at Kempton. He is now rated 142 but I think he could still be well handicapped especially over this trip. Paul Nicholls thinks an awful lot of TOPOFTHEGAME and being by Flemensfirth he will love the conditions. Quietly confident he wins this race. WIN.
13:50 Wincanton – VALHALLA 4/1 with Bet 365 – 1 POINT WIN
Only 3 runners here and at 4/1 VALHALLA is a great bet. This is his 5th start of the season over fences and he has got better with each run. He was a winner at Exeter a month ago and is going in the right direction. Over hurdles he is rated 137 so the mark of 127 looks lenient. Todays 2nd favourite is making his debut over fences so is there to be shot at and the favourite looks a false one to me which I wouldn’t be touching at the prices. That leaves VALHALLA who is rated outsider of the field when really he should be around the 7/4 mark. WIN.
15:35 Wincanton – GRAND VISION 5/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
GRAND VISION could put these to the test in bad ground. He loves to front run and his jumping last time out was electric. If he can into a rhythm he could have most of this field struggling. The 2m 4f is a bit on the short side for him but in the ground and running from the front, it is going to be a 3 mile test. I expect a bold show and once again a horse who should be shorter. I make him around the 10/3 mark so very happy with 5/1. WIN.
13:50 Cheltenham – FRODON 8/1 with William Hill and Paddy Power – 0.5 POINTS E/W
It is hard to believe FRODON is only a 6 year old as it seems like he has been around forever. He was the winner of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup when just a 4 year old. That was his last visit to Cheltenham so we know he likes the course. The ground was also similar to what he is going to encounter today. We have Bryony Frost on board who has been riding out of her skin this season and she takes a valuable 5lb off his back. It was only 2 starts ago this horse was finishing 8 lengths behind Might Bite so we know he has a touch of class and if he can get into a nice rhythm he is sure to go close. E/W.
13:50 Ascot – LA BAGUE AU ROI 11/10 Ladbrokes – 3 POINT WIN
This horse should be 4/7, the evens available is an absolute steal. She has one danger in this race and that is Dusky Legend who I don’t think will get 3 miles on heavy ground, in a million years. Bar a fall LA BAGUE AU ROI wins. She already beat Dusky Legend last season and our selection has improved considerably since then. She was stepped up in trip last time out and stayed every yard of the 3 miles. She beat a very good horse in Jer’s Girl and something would surely have to go a miss for this one to get beat. WIN.
14:30 Lingfield – KACHY 7/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
Front runner KACHY is drawn 9 of 9 which is not ideal but when I looked a bit deeper into the race most horses like to be held up. I don’t think this will affect the horse getting the lead he needs and it will take a good horse to catch him. KACHY is rated 105 but the handicapper and does have to concede weight to the field. For me he is head and shoulders above these and the fact he is going to most probably get a soft lead bodes well for the horse. This is a Class 2 so he is down in trip as he has been running consistently well in a much better races. WIN.
14:05 Kempton – WAITING PATIENTLY 2/1 BETFRED – 1.5 POINTS WIN
True to his name Malcolm Jefferson has been patient with WAITING PATIENTLY this season making sure he picks the right race for the horse. He has really been looked after as connections think they have a special horse on their hands. He has had 4 runs over fences and has won all 4 races. He is a super jumper and has not put a foot wrong. He firmly put Politologue in his place last year and that is a horse I rate highly. I think it will take a very good performance to get this horse beat and I think we may be a high class horse. The fact he has been looked after so well with pay divendends with his future. WIN.
14:25 Warwick – BLACK IVORY 5/1 generally – 1 POINT WIN
This is the type of race where I am always looking towards the bottom of the handicap. It is a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier at Cheltenham. If you are running in this race you are looking to get qualified for the race. The reason I look to the bottom of the handicap is because you realistically need a handicap mark of at least 135 to get in the race. Because of that any horse rated lower than that mark you know will trying their nuts off as any lower and you won’t get in the race. It also means that the horses nearer the top will not want to ruin the handicap mark if they are around the 135 or more mark. BLACK IVORY fits the bill perfectly. He is rated 126 so needs to come up the handicap at least 9lb. Win this race well and you pretty much get the mark you want. Malcolm Jefferson is as shrewd as they come and I imagine he has been planning this for sometime. BALCK IVORY was an impressive winner last time out on heavy ground beating a highly regarded Le Breuil by 6 lengths. He was raised 6lb for that but I think he should’ve gone up more in the handicap. Malcolm Jefferson is using Jamie Hamilton who claims a further 3lb which pretty much puts him bottom weight. I expect a big run and I think you will see this horse go off around the 11/4 mark. WIN.
14:40 Kempton – WILLIAM HENRY 13/2 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I really rate this horse and can forgive his last run as it was his debut over fences. He is now back over hurdles and I expect WILLIAM HENRY to be involved here. The star from last week James Bowen is on board and he claims a valuable 5lb. He is a very good horse and he showed this last season with 2 wins and two 2nds. The three 2nds were against Pingshou and Wholestone who are both top class horses. I expect WILLIAM HENRY to travel smoothly through the race and the 5lb claim will come into play in the last part of the race. It is worth pointing out that he was a 17 length winner at Kempton a few seasons ago so obviously likes the course and going right handed. E/W.
14:25 Sandown – SUMMERVILLE BOY 16/1 generally – 0.5 POINTS E/W
I think SUMMERVILLE BOY is a huge price at 16/1. The favourite in this race is Western Ryder who our selection finished 3rd to at Cheltenham last time out. That day SUMMERVILLE BOY was sent off 9/4 and Western Ryder 5/2 so I can’t understand why the prices are massively different here with our selection only going down by 5 lengths. I don’t think Noel Fehily gave the horse a great ride either and we have regular jockey AP Heskin back on board today. He is the retained rider for Tom George so will know the horse well, having ridden in training and on the course. Whether he wins or not is another matter but one thing for sure is he is way overpriced. E/W.
15:55 Chepstow – GOOD BOY BOBBY 6/4 Bet 365 – 1.5 POINTS WIN
I was impressed with the way GOOD BOY BOBBY won on his debut at Chepstow 2 months ago. He seemed to hang in the closing stages but still won the race. He is sure to improve for that run and connections have put a hood on him today which should help him concentrate that bit better. He is also by Flemensfirth and his horses always like cut in the ground. The going will be perfect and I expect this horse to win with a bit in hand. WIN.
13:25 Cheltenham – YANWORTH 15/8 generally – 2 POINT WIN
YANWORTH finished 2nd to todays favourite Willoughby Court last time out at Newbury but today he has a 5lb pull at the weights. If YANWORTH didn’t make a mistake last time out he would’ve gone close. He will need to sort his jumping out but at the prices I can’t not bet a classy horse like this. The ground will be no problem and he has won around Cheltenham previously. WIN.
15:10 Cheltenham – WHOLESTONE 7/2 generally – 1 POINT WIN
WHOLESTONE has got to turn form around with todays favourite Colins Sister but he absolutely loves Cheltenham. His form reads 12113 at the course and thats includes a 3rd the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle. The ground will be no problem as he won on soft ground here twice last season.